Terry Maddaford: Defence the key to winning the Cup

nzherald.co.nz exclusive

Defence rather than attack will win the World Cup if the trend of post-section matches continues.

In the 12 games since group play ended, only 20 goals (at an average of 1.66 per game) have been scored in the regulation 90 minutes. Two have been added as golden goals to lift that average to 1.83 -- hardly scintillating stuff but very obviously a winning formula.

In two quarter-finals yesterday, 180 minutes of regulation-time football failed to produce even one goal.

The South Koreans eventually surprising Spain by winning the penalty shootout while Turkey got past brave Senegal with a golden goal.

Apart from England's 3-0 win over Denmark -- with all goals scored in the first half -- no other team in post-section play has scored more than two goals. Only Brazil (2-0 over Belgium) and the United States, who beat Mexico by the same score, and England (against Denmark) have won by more than a goal.

While that suggests most games have been defence-dominated bores, that has not always been so.

The Spanish had enough chances to beat the Koreans in normal time but failed and appeared to go into extra time content to settling it in a shootout. While Raul, their ace striker, was out of the starting lineup though injury, he was on the substitute's bench and ready to play a part if needed. For some reason he was not given even 20 minutes in extra time and with the Koreans winning the dramatic shootout 5-4, Raul's World Cup was over.

The quirk of the draw now gives Turkey a second crack at Brazil.

The pair met first-up in Ulsan with Brazil coming from behind to win 2-1. The Turks followed that with a 1-1 draw with Costa Rica and a 3-0 win over China to end group play. In post-section they have beaten Japan 1-0 and now Senegal by the same margin. Seven goals in five games is some way short of what could have been expected from a team now just one win from a place in the World Cup final.

Before that rematch on Wednesday night, Germany meet the Koreans in Seoul on Tuesday in a game which promises more of the same unbelievable home-country support.

Apart from their 8-0 opener against the hesitant Saudis and the 2-0 win they had over Cameroon in their last group match, the Germans have managed just one goal a game in seeing off Paraguay and the US. The Koreans will be mindful of that and surely prepared to take a chance in taking the game to the well-organised Germans.

The atmosphere will be electric with the co-hosts carrying the hopes of not only a nation but the whole Asian Confederation who are now deep into uncharted territory.

Yes, Brazil against Germany is the popular pick for next Sunday's final but in a tournament already chockful of surprises, no-one would be putting their house on it.

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