Fred de Jong: Formation just part of the plan

Opinion

If it ain't broke don't fix it.

That old adage must be ringing in the ears of All Whites coach Ricki Herbert as he finalises both the players and the formation of his starting XI.

There has been much debate in the buildup to tonight's epic encounter with Bahrain on the All Whites' best approach to nullify the threats of this Bahrain side. Should Herbert stick with the 3-4-3 formation he used to get the 0-0 result in Manama or should he change to a more conventional 4-4-2?

There is some justification for sticking with a 3-4-3. It got the result Herbert wanted in the first leg. However, Bahrain exposed some serious weaknesses in the All Whites' defensive structures which could have put the tie beyond reach. It means Herbert is choosing what he considers to be his best side including the three strikers - Shane Smeltz, Chris Killen and Rory Fallon - and then fitting the formation around these players. Finally, played well, a 3-4-3 system can be a more fluid attacking formation and the hard truth is that the All Whites will need to score at least one goal tonight.

However, with only three defenders a 3-4-3 can leave space in the fullback areas to be exploited by opponents. It can very easily turn into a 5-2-3 formation with the wingbacks pegged back and unable to offer any width going forward. This is what we saw in Manama with Leo Bertos reduced to a bit-role in attack.

So what does a 4-4-2 formation offer Herbert that would make him want to change? It is a more balanced formation, giving natural width through the two fullbacks and wide midfield players such as Bertos and Michael McGlinchey. The All Whites have tall strikers that relish the ball swung across the penalty area and this width would provide avenues for such crosses. The roles in 4-4-2 are more clearly defined and our players tend to be more comfortable playing within these structures.

The downside of a change revolves around the right-back position and a criticism of Herbert and his management team is that they have not cultivated a specialist in this area over the past three years. David Mulligan showed at the Confederations Cup he is a liability playing there, Aaron Scott would be a gamble of immense proportions and pushing Ben Sigmund wider would mean a reshuffle of what is a solid, experienced central defensive trio in Ryan Nelsen, Ivan Vicelich and Sigmund.

Herbert's ultimate decision is whether he is more comfortable with keeping Sigmund as a centre-back or moving him into the right-back position. Based on the training sessions this week it looks like the coach will opt for the former and go with the 3-4-3 formation as a result.

However, formation alone cannot guarantee success. As always, it is the players' ability to execute that will decide the outcome.

German field marshal Helmuth von Multke said it best: "No plan survives beyond the first contact with the enemy."