England will not win the 2010 World Cup. Their squad, compared to the major powers in world football, is lacking in nearly every position.
At the root of the problem is money. English Premier League clubs owe more than all the other European clubs combined and that's a problem when the success of your national team is dependent on homegrown talent.
In the past 10 years, 34 English league clubs have gone out of business. Of the big four English clubs only Chelsea, with their billionaire Russian owner, are not running unsustainable levels of debt.
Arsenal and Liverpool are as in the red as the shirts they wear, each owing close to $900 million. Manchester United were debt-free till the Glazer family took full control in 2005. Now England's most iconic club has debts in excess of $1.6 billion.
Massive wages, the highest of any of the European leagues, are paid to attract and retain top talent. The average annual salary of a Premiership footballer is $3 million. This also happens in Italy and Spain, but not to the same extent.
Spain's La Liga is dominated by Real Madrid and Barcelona. The gulf in talent between this duo and the rest of the league is immense. Last season 25 points separated third place Valencia from second-placed Madrid.
This may produce an uncompetitive league but it benefits the World Cup favourites: the cream of the national talent is focused at two clubs so there is familiarity between players at national level.
The EPL clubs demand instant success. Proven talent comes at a price. So they cast their nets overseas and diminish the shrinking pool of national talent. Which in turn leads to the mistaken belief that players such as Ashley Cole are world class.
This catches English football in a nasty paradox. The more successful the Premiership, the more the national team will suffer. As wages continue to rise, so too do the transfer fees.
With players already making millions regardless of form or silverware, the motivation to win is diminished. Graeme Souness has warned that players are becoming impossible to manage, with fines no longer effective.
The general lack of moral fibre may ensure fodder for the British tabloids, but it's also indicative of a bigger problem.
Steven Gerrard endured the stress of his well-publicised trial during pre-season - and are we to believe that played no part in his poor form last season? Recently crocked skipper Rio Ferdinand first celebrated his call-up to the England squad in 1997 with a spot of drink driving.
In 2003 he was banned from the pitch for 8 months for failing to show at a routine drugs test. He and Frank Lampard were also caught up in the Aiya Napa sex tapes scandal.
Former captain John Terry was caught up in reports of an arrest for affray. The open mocking of American tourists while out drinking days after 9/11 was distasteful, even before his affair with a team-mate's girlfriend split the England dressing room and lost them the talents of Wayne Bridge, Cole's only real competition at left back.
Terry's father Ted was exposed offering cocaine to an undercover reporter and last year his mother was allegedly caught shoplifting.
Chelsea may have done the double this season, but respected player turned pundit Alan Hansen is not the only one to question Terry's drop in form. He rates Terry's chances of a good World Cup as no better than 50-50.
It's 44 years since England won their only World Cup and for all the above reasons, disappointment seems set to be the only thing for England's trophy cabinet. Again.
<i>David Fearnhead:</i> Cash, off-field antics against England
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