Chris Rattue: Italy game battle of hopes and dreams

The boots of All Whites captain Ryan Nelsen have the name of his son Maxwell and unborn baby Monica jnr stitched on the sides. Photo / Brett Phibbs

The hopes of a nation will go on the line in Nelspruit on Monday morning - those of Italy.

As for New Zealand, dreams more like, because no matter what the surge in soccer devotion in a rugby-mad country, this is a contest where World Cup holders Italy will be overwhelming favourites to win.

Soccer being the game it is - the powerful Spaniards have already been tipped over by unfancied Switzerland - just about anything is possible.

But New Zealand beating Italy? And then maybe progressing to the knockout stage? Come on, it can't be so.

This has been a Jekyll and Hyde tournament so far, with flashes of brilliant power, from the Germans, some spectacular moments including from the Argentinian genius Lionel Messi, but also a lack of goals and drab matches such as Holland's boring win over Denmark.

Italy hardly shone in their draw against Paraguay, with a lack of thrust up front. They are sleeping giants, minus their finest player, the midfielder Andrea Pirlo, and now with their great goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon also down and probably out.

They are, it goes without saying, a class above the All Whites man for man, so the business of finding hope is a treacherous one.

What the All Whites do have in their favour is a settled shape and way of playing the game, and a certain confidence that has increased after the fightback against Slovakia. Midfielder Simon Elliott in particular has pointed to a team X-factor, which he says is partially explained by the number of professionals in the squad.

They are almost certain to field the same starting XI that took the field in Rustenburg. Midfielder Tim Brown remains an unlikely proposition although no one in high places will actually state that.

Brown, with a recently repaired shoulder, looked a little uncomfortable when he went down while making a solid tackle during training yesterday. His fitness must also be in doubt, especially at altitude.

Italy's inability to create decent chances against Paraguay will also encourage the All Whites. Italy relied on a goalkeeping howler for their goal, and were forced to shoot from distance.

They have also had to return to altitude after playing the first match in Cape Town.

Deciphering the Italians' intentions is a mysterious business.

There is talk of them using a number of formations - they started with 4-3-3 against Paraguay then switched to 4-4-2.

According to their journalists, the Italians have definitely been put on the alert by New Zealand's draw with Slovakia.

Italy's interest in New Zealand may have suddenly risen, but of their large press contingent, only one agency journalist and one TV outfit attended the All Whites' open training session on another sunny but cold day at Daveyton.

"The draw with Slovakia changed Italy's perspective," said the agency writer Leonardo Nesti.

"New Zealand can make danger for Italy with the free kicks and headers. They have a lot of tall players."

Italian fans would be outraged should their team fail to win, and there is the secondary matter of building a healthy goal difference should it be needed to top the group, and avoid a meeting with Group E favourites Holland. So Italy have every reason to put the foot on the gas.

If Buffon's back injury forces him out, Federico Marchetti will start. He had an excellent season with Cagliari, a battling Serie A club, and is said to have attracted interest from the bigger clubs.

The defenders worked well against Paraguay, but the loss of Buffon could be significant, if not against New Zealand, then for their overall defence of the title.

There were also questions around the form of their veteran central defender Fabio Cannavaro, the captain, who had an average season with struggling Juventus.

Cannavaro had a decent opening World Cup match although he was beaten in the air for Paraguay's goal, the route New Zealand favours to create chances.

There is talk of coach Marcello Lippi making limited changes, but he might also believe his first-choice attackers will not get a better opportunity to find form than against New Zealand.

The head says New Zealand will struggle and be frustrated out of the game by Italy's ability to control possession. The heart says there is a glimmer of hope, although who would dare even mention the word draw when the world champions, one of the great World Cup sides, are the opponents.

Italy may have failed to impress their fans, yet they still dominated the ball against the strong Paraguay side, and will do so again against New Zealand.

Even if Italy are well short of their best form, World Cup heavyweights don't often fail in this sort of assignment.