If you had one chance to predict the winner of the FIFA World Cup, which team would you choose? Defending champions Germany, perennial favourites Brazil, or former champions Spain?
Most fans would likely plump for one of those three. But that's just not quantitative enough for investment banks.
With the start of the World Cup in Russia less than a month away, UBS deployed a team of 18 analysts and editors, and ran a computer simulation of the tournament 10,000 times, in an effort to predict the likely winner of the tournament.
It's a familiar game for UBS and other banks, many of which run competing models to predict the quadrennial World Cup. While the simulations might sounds impressive, they're not always accurate: In 2014 UBS said hosts Brazil would prevail, only to see the team humiliated in a 7-1 semifinal loss to Germany, the eventual winner.
This year's UBS model comes wrapped in a comprehensive 17-page research note. As well as colourful facts about the tournament host - did you know Russia has 11 different time zones, though World Cup matches will only take place in four? - the bank includes plenty of advice for investors seeking growth potential in Russia.
