The second theory is more unpalatable – but also more believable.
There is a deeper issue here, that drills into the core of the squad. To cut to the chase, the Ferns don’t appear to have a high-performance culture.
Whatever is happening inside the environment and inside the team, something isn’t working.
It’s on an individual level – as players are not performing to their potential – and as a collective. It’s the training, the preparation, and the messaging. It’s physical and mental.
Because Friday wasn’t a one-off.
Remember the She Believes Cup a year ago, which was seen as a World Cup practice run against three high-quality opponents?
Instead, the Ferns delivered three strangely tame performances, including a hat-trick of own goals against the United States.
There was the muted display against a limited Wales team (0-0) last June and a couple of underwhelming efforts in the homecoming series against Korea Republic.
After an extended preparation, the game against Japan in Nagano in November was also anti-climatic, while it’s hard to forget the two goals conceded in 90 seconds in extra time against Australia in Townsville last year.
If the Ferns have a true high-performance culture - which demands personal and collective excellence, along with ruthless accountability and ongoing improvement – how is all of the above happening?
Everybody understands that the Ferns are often overmatched, have a limited pool of professional players and historically have struggled to find the net.
But that doesn’t explain a lack of grit, fight, desire or cohesion on Friday.
It doesn’t explain an inability to execute basic skills, track and mark players defensively and win physical battles.
It doesn’t begin to explain – with a home World Cup around the corner – such a meek display.
In a strong admission, defender CJ Bott, who was one of the better performers – even if she tested the referee’s patience – hinted at a conditioning aspect to Friday’s flat fare.
“A lack of fitness, a lack of cohesion and those little individual battles we were all losing across the park,” she said, when asked how the team fell away so badly in the last 60 minutes.
Captain Ali Riley said while they took some time to adjust to an experimental 3-5-2 shape, it wasn’t the primary factor.
“Honestly, it was a lack of focus with our passes to each other, our first touch, we struggled a little bit with our organisation,” said Riley.
“We just weren’t good enough. We are positive and we preach togetherness and culture and those things are still very important to us but we have to make it count on the field. We have to be better. We weren’t good enough as individuals. I know the players will look at themselves in the mirror.”
She admitted to disappointing familiar failings – “not getting pressure, not dropping in time, not man marking” – while the inability to stem the Portuguese tide stung.
“We were unable to problem solve ourselves on the field and recognise what was wrong.”
World No 29 Argentina won’t offer the same quality as the slick Portuguese (22) but will still provide a tough test on Monday night in Hamilton, off the back of a confidence-boosting 4-0 win over Chile last Friday.
But whatever happens in the two-match series – the 24th-ranked Ferns also face Argentina on Thursday in Auckland – the team is reaching a critical fork in the road, with serious questions to be asked in the next few months.
