Premier League managers usually trot out the line "40 points and we're safe" when it comes to relegation. Six teams have achieved that but, with a dozen games remaining, a clutch of clubs are straining to haul themselves out of the danger zone.
My picks to go down are Blackburn, Wigan and Wolves - but keep an eye on Aston Villa, who sit precariously above the struggling quintet.
This is how the bottom six teams stack up after 26 games:
15. Aston Villa - 29
16. Wolves - 22
17. QPR - 21
18. Blackburn - 21
19. Bolton - 20
20. Wigan - 20
Two days ago Villa announced a loss of £54m in the year from 1 June 2010 to 31 May 2011. There are problems on the pitch too. Darren Bent is out for three months, and will probably miss the Euros after rupturing ankle ligaments, while Richard Dunne is also sidelined with a shoulder fracture.
There will be a sense of déjà vu for manager Alex McLeish, who experienced relegation with Birmingham a year ago. His team then were actually one point better off with twelve games left to play than Villa are now.
The Birmingham side is a huge club. Selling Ashley Young and Stewart Downing has shifted more pressure onto the likes of youngster Marc Albrighton. Players are causing a stir as they sit uncomfortably close to the trapdoor. Charles N'Zogbia tweeted, then deleted, "First time in my life I'm not happy playing football" following his substitution against City two weeks ago.