Soccer: All Whites banking on draw

Football is often decided on the bounce of the ball but next weekend New Zealand's chances of qualifying for the 2014 World Cup will rely heavily on which way four marble balls roll.

Fifa will make a draw in Brazil to decide which continents will playoff in the final stages of World Cup qualification. Balls representing Oceania, Asia, North America and South America will go into a pot and picked out to determine who plays who.

Last time around, New Zealand, as Oceania winners, played off against the fifth-best Asian team, Bahrain. There was an expectation Fifa would stick with the status quo but they surprised everyone with a new plan.

This time, Oceania's winners could be taking on the fourth-best North American team or sixth-best South American side (officially it will be the fifth-best South American side but Brazil qualify automatically as hosts).

The draw has a massive bearing on New Zealand's chances of qualifying for consecutive World Cups.

"I don't have a favourite because there's no easy pathway," All Whites coach Ricki Herbert says, "but South American would be the marble I would like to avoid."

He's right. As encouraging as playing the sixth-best team from South America might sound, it will still pose a massive challenge. Last time around, that would have meant playing Ecuador, who made it to the last 16 of the 2006 World Cup and who were undefeated at home in that qualifying campaign.

The two times before that (2006, 2002) it was Colombia, who are ranked 54 in the world and have been to four World Cups. They recently topped their group at the 2011 Copa America, finishing ahead of Argentina, before being bundled out by Peru in the quarter-finals.

The case of Peru shows just how difficult it is to triumph over South American opposition. They finished bottom of the 10 teams in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup but progressed to the final four of the Copa America before being beaten by Uruguay (who were the last team to qualify out of South America for the World Cup but then went onto make the last four in South Africa).

Even a match up with the likes of Bolivia, the bottom-ranked team in South America, poses massive problems. They might be ranked 93 in the world, four places ahead of New Zealand, but they play their home games at the Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz, which is 3637m above sea level.

They beat Argentina 6-1 there in 2009, the worst defeat for Argentina in 60 years, and also beat Brazil 2-1 in a World Cup qualifier.

New Zealand would be happy with Asia but fancy their chances if drawn against North American opposition.

Last time around, Costa Rica finished fourth in qualifying before being beaten by Uruguay in a home-and-away playoff. In 2006, Trinidad & Tobago qualified for Germany after beating Bahrain in a playoff and in 2002 Honduras finished fourth.

The top 10 teams in North America are ranked ahead of New Zealand but the rankings don't provide an accurate picture. The All Whites bounced between 153 and 54 in the space of 12 months and their ranking of 97 is not a true indication of their place - a spot between 60 and 80 is about right.

They would rate their chances against Honduras (44), Panama (52), Costa Rica (55) and El Salvador (72).

Asia presents tricky opposition. The continent is so vast it's difficult to know whether a playoff would be against an East Asian or Middle Eastern team. If it's assumed Japan (13), Australia (22) and South Korea (26) qualify automatically, then teams like Iran (50), China (75), Jordan (84), Uzbekistan (86), Saudi Arabia (92), Qatar (94), Iraq (96), Bahrain (102) and even North Korea (119), who qualified for South Africa, will be in the mix.

NZF and Herbert have already put together a skeleton All Whites programme leading into Brazil 2014. More intensive work on this will start after next weekend's draw.

There's a two in three chance of avoiding South America but also a one in three chance of getting them.

"We know Asia, we have experience there and with Australia in that confederation it gives us a relative comparison," Herbert says. "But you can think long and hard about the draw. The reality is all three have a difficult look to them. Whatever we get, we will deal with it and look forward to another big show."

In an era of bribery and corruption among Fifa's corridors, it's hoped all of the marble balls are weighted equally.