At least one full week of sunlight is needed to spark troutfishing action in the popular summer spots at Rotorua, across eastern Bay of Plenty and at the Lake Taupo smelting beaches.
Normally these regions provide superb fishing as early as December, peak in January and February and tail off in March, but the unseasonal weather, with almost constant cloud and wind since last month, has upset the pattern.
It's also upset tourists on angling holidays and the guides who make their living from them.
The long-range forecast is for more cloud, wind, rain and cooler temperatures until about the last week of this month, so it might be next month before Lake Rotorua heats up and the stream mouths at Ngongotaha, Waiteti, and especially Awahou and Hamurana Springs begin to fire.
Lake Rotoiti has been fishing well, but it has been patchy everywhere else except at the Ohau Channel between Lakes Rotorua and Rotoiti. Action in the channel usually finishes before Christmas but this season has continued through January while the weather remains cooler.
"We need a week of sunlight in the next week or so, otherwise it'll be February before it really happens," says Doug Heaford of O'Keefe's tackle shop in Rotorua.
"While the fish remain in the Ohau Channel, you won't get them at Hamurana, Awahou and the other spots. So all I can say is, watch the skies. We need that sunlight."
When the sun does smile and the lake heats up, the trout will move in close to the shore at the colder stream mouths, where the wading is easy and the fishing can be devastating day and night.
Across at Aniwhenua Lodge, at Lake Aniwhenua on the Rangitaiki River, guide Graeme Ryder is awaiting the hot weather that triggers the insect hatches and brings on the eastern Bay of Plenty's spectacular dry-fly fishing.
The unseasonal snap has slowed fishing everywhere in the Aniwhenua region after a promising start to the summer last month, and most of the fishing waters were high and dirty recently after heavy rain.
But as Joan Ryder says, "It shouldn't be long now till things pick up again, and I saw my first cicada of the summer the other day."
Once the cicada is on the wing, the dry-fly action is not far behind, and the Bay of Plenty is just the place to capitalise on it.
So, too, is the trophy trout lake Otamangakau, south of Turangi, where the cicada is making an appearance and the fishing has been good lately - especially with green damsel nymphs and green beetles - and can only improve when hotter weather brings out more cicadas.
At Lake Taupo the smelting has been erratic as the water remains cold. On the lake itself, harling and especially jigging have been successful.
The Tongariro could be worth a visit for fresh-run fish if the poor weather continues, especially now that brown trout spawning runs are beginning, but the evening dry-fly fishing has been patchy.
At Taupo and the Tongariro, like everywhere else, everything hinges on the weather. Bring on a shock to the system - bring on the sunshine.
Fishing: When the sun smiles the action heats up
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