Fantasy Super Rugby: Round 15 Preview

By Dr Stats

NZ Herald·

21 May, 2015 01:35 AM4 mins to read

Patrick Lambie is one of several players that starred in the first half of the fantasy season before falling off the map of late. Photo / Getty Images.

Rugby Union as a sport lends itself perfectly to surprise. It's free-flowing nature, the unpredictable bounce of an oval ball and specialist set pieces produce periods of play not seen in other ball sports.

As a result, Sam Whitelock can suddenly burst through mid-field and run 50 metres for a try and Sharks flanker Marcel Coetzee can have more tries than an All Black winger - this is the nature of Super Rugby.

I'm playing both Dream Team fantasy games, Super Rugby and NRL, this season and the difference between each sport becomes more apparent with every round.

While NRL has largely consistent performers and predictable matchups, fantasy Super Rugby seems to be almost impossible to predict outside of positional bias.

A great example of this can be seen below as I compare the perfect First XVs from the first seven rounds of the season to the second seven completed rounds.

Dream Team First XV - Rounds 1-7
Reg Goodes, Hurricanes
Josh Hohneck, Highlanders
Ben Alexander, Brumbies
Luke Jones, Rebels
Pieter-Steph du Toit, Sharks
Warren Whiteley, Lions
Michael Hooper, Waratahs
Sam Cane, Chiefs
Jacobus Reinach, Sharks
Patrick Lambie, Sharks
Waisake Naholo, Highlanders
James Lowe, Chiefs
Mike Harris, Rebels
Julian Savea, Hurricanes
Israel Folau, Waratahs

Dream Team First XV - Rounds 8-14
Keven Mealamu, Blues
Toby Smith, Rebels
Stephen Moore, Brumbies / Liam Coltman, Highlanders
Sam Whitelock, Crusaders
Will Skelton, Waratahs
Jaco Kriel, Lions
Ardie Savea, Hurricanes
David Pocock, Brumbies
Francois Hougaard, Bulls
Colin Slade, Crusaders
Sefenaia Naivalu, Rebels
George Moala, Blues
Ma'a Nonu, Hurricanes
Damien de Allende, Stormers
Ben Smith, Highlanders

Now, this list is compiled with total points only and doesn't take into account bye rounds, but still; not one player appears in both teams.

While this comparison illustrates how tough it is to retain a competitive side in our game, it also demonstrates how there are always opportunities to chase down your opposing fantasy coaches via riding a hot streak or buying low on under-valued players or players set to receive more minutes on the park.

With seven rounds of the competition yet to play out, there is plenty of time for you to surge up the rankings on the back of some informed transfers and a pinch of luck.

My favourite informed transfers this week revolve around the Chiefs - Damian McKenzie ($59,200) is a steal while starting at first five, Sam Cane ($88,800) can only get better to finish the season and Bryce Heem ($63,900) should make you some cash with even a half-decent performance tonight.

Now, all I need is for these unpredictable gods of rugby union to strike Andrew Mulligan's Hurricanes-heavy side and I'll be back in business on our expert leader board.

Get the latest fantasy advice from Dr Stats Thursdays at 6.25pm on Radio Sport with D'Arcy Waldegrave.

On the bench:
Steven Luatua, Blues (out for season)
Patrick Tuipulotu, Blues (likely out for season)
Tony Woodcock, Blues (out 1-2 weeks)
Charlie Faumuina, Blues (rested)
Adriaan Strauss, Bulls (rested)
Lappies Labuschagne (benched)
Arno Botha, Bulls (benched)
Rayno Benjamin, Cheetahs (benched)
Sergeal Petersen, Cheetahs (dropped)
Tienie Burger, Cheetahs (out 1-2 weeks)
Michael Allardice, Chiefs (out for season)
Pauliasi Manu, Chiefs (benched)
Brad Weber, Chiefs (benched)
Dominic Bird, Crusaders (dropped)
Matt Todd, Crusaders (benched)
Andy Ellis, Crusaders (benched)
Codie Taylor, Crusaders (benched)
Nepo Laulala, Crusaders (benched)
Solomoni Jnr Rasolea, Force (out 1-3 weeks)
Richard Buckman, Highlanders (benched)
Ryan Tongia, Highlanders (dropped)
Conrad Smith, Hurricanes (rested)
Motu Matu'u, Hurricanes (benched)
Brad Shields, Hurricanes (benched)
Reg Goodes, Hurricanes (suspended one week)
Harold Vorster, Lions (benched)
Alwyn Hollenbach, Lions (out 2-4 weeks)
Robert Kruger, Lions (benched)
Franco Mostert, Lions (rested)
Julian Redelinghuys, Lions (benched)
Schalk van der Merwe, Lions (benched)
Toby Smith, Rebels (out 1-3 weeks)
Sefanaia Naivalu, Rebels (out 1-2 weeks)
Tamati Ellison, Rebels (out 2-4 weeks)
Jordy Reid, Rebels (benched)
Lachie Turner, Reds (out 1-2 weeks)
Dale Chadwick, Sharks (benched)
Johnny Kotze, Stormers (dropped)
Nic Groom, Stormers (benched)
Bongi Mbonambi, Stormers (benched)