Fantasy Rugby: Rain could ruin Fantasy teams

Showers are forecast for the Wellington region on Saturday night which have, over the course of the game so far, impacted fantasy scores considerably.Photo / Getty Images

With rain forecast in Wellington for a tough test between the All Blacks and Springboks, Australia looms as the team to exploit in the latest round of Dream Team Fantasy Rugby Championship.

Showers are forecast for the Wellington region on Saturday night which have, over the course of the game so far, impacted fantasy scores considerably. It seems wet weather is a kryptonite to outside backs' value in this particular game.

With that in mind, New Zealand and South African backs are ideally avoided in this upcoming round while key forwards get a slight boost in value.

South Africa's only change for this coming weekend sees five eighth Morne Steyn dropped from the squad with Handre Pollard named as his starting replacement.

Pollard is not a great play against the All Blacks but value can be found via lock Eben Etzebeth ($137,700) and back rowers Marcell Coetzee ($87,600) and Duane Vermeulen ($93,400).

The All Blacks have been forced to make two key changes to their side - Sam Whitelock and Liam Messam are both out for 3-4 weeks which brings Jeremy Thrush ($57,500) and Steven Luatua ($78,700) into the starting XV.

I'm picking Thrush as the best value play of the round but am not as high on Luatua who has struggled to be a statistically productive player for most of 2014.

Aaron Cruden ($167,000) replaces Beauden Barrett at first five and will be a fine play for all squads.

On the Gold Coast, Australia face Argentina in what I see as the key fantasy matchup of the round.

Like New Zealand, Australia have been forced to make changes due to injury - Adam Ashley-Copper and Wycliff Palu look likely to miss one week as Peter Betham ($57,500) and Ben McCalman ($100,200) step into their place.

I'm high on McCalman for a big game on Saurday night, along with fellow back rower Michael Hooper ($90,000). Betham is a relative unknown and a speculative play only this weekend.

The other change for the Wallabies sees Tatafu Polota-Nau ($73,000) make his first appearance of the tournament. He's a solid plug and play for your squad.

Outside of those already mentioned, Bernard Foley ($101,100) and Israel Folau ($205,400) will vie for your captaincy choice while Tevita Kuridrani ($73,000), Rob Horne ($85,600) and Nick Phipps ($61,700) have great matchups on paper.

Argentina's fantasy production has slowed over the past two rounds but fullback Joaquin Tuculet ($94,200), first five Nicolas Sanchez ($125,900) and front rower Agustin Creevy ($74,600) are the picks from their team.

Please remember to follow all your fantasy players' performances, as they happen, in our brand new live match centre feature within the Fantasy Rugby Championship game.

Also, listen to Radio Sport every week on a Thursday after 6pm to hear Dr Stats chat with D'Arcy Waldegrave about the latest fantasy news and advice.

Top Pick:
Bernard Foley, Australia

Value Pick:
Jeremy Thrush, New Zealand

On the bench:
Adam Ashley-Cooper, Australia (out 1 week)
Wycliff Palu, Australia (out 1-2 weeks)
Sam Whitelock, New Zealand (out 3-4 weeks)
Liam Messam, New Zealand (out 3-4 weeks)
James Hanson, Australia (benched)
Morne Steyn, South Africa (dropped)
Tomas Lavanini, Argentina (suspended 1 match)
Horacio Agulla, Argentina (dropped)
Lucas Gonzalez Amorisino, Argentina (benched)