Equestrian Sport New Zealand high performance boss Sarah Harris was reluctant to count Tait out of contention in the team of five for London to be named at the start of July. However, the numbers game is counting against him.
Todd and veteran Andrew Nicholson are locks for places, while Clark Johnstone, Caroline Powell and Jonathan Paget are strong favourites for the other three spots, with fast-rising Lucy Jackson and Jonelle Richards in contention.
"He still has until June 11, which is when we name our shortlist," Harris said last night. "By then people have to have met the minimum FEI standards so he has until then to do something pretty significant.
"We're not writing anyone off yet but it would be unlikely he would get there."
Todd, Nicholson and Powell have two entries each for Badminton, with others in the field including Paget and Richards while Craig Nicolai and Dan Jocelyn are waitlisted for starts.