Equestrian: Hypnotize chases big treble

Not Isaac Lupton's most elegant moment, but he gets through with Hypnotize (L). Photo / Supplied

It's unfair to declare Hypnotize will eclipse Hunterville if he wins the $85,000 Great Northern steeplechase at Ellerslie on Saturday week.

That's not to say it would be a performance less than stupendous.

But it's folly to suggest it will be a better effort under 70.5kg or 71kg than Hunterville's third consecutive Great Northern in 1985 under 66.5kg.

There is only one important factor in weights - relativity.

Hypnotize won Saturday's $35,000 Mad Butcher Pakuranga Hunt Cup carrying 70kg on a 63kg minimum, the same minimum weight that will apply to the Great Northern.

When Hunterville won his three Great Northerns the minimum was 57kg.

On Saturday, Hypnotize conceded 7kg to runner-up Kousso, who was on the minimum.

When Hunterville won his third Northern under 66.5kg he had to give up to 9.5kg to some runners and carried 8kg more than second-placed Orca, who he beat in a photofinish.

In all likelihood, Fair King and Brushman - fourth and third on Saturday - will improve to be the horses Hypnotize has to beat.

The weight differential on Saturday was 3.5kg and 5.5kg and indications are those figures will rise to 4.5kg and 6.5kg, or, perhaps, remain close to the same.

Slightly balancing this theory in favour of Hypnotize is that horses of today cannot carry the weights of their forebears.

As each horse generation passes so does, steadily, the ability to lump massive weights.

And Hunterville looked a throwback even for his 1970s generation - tall, rawbone and rugged, with a massive shoulder, exactly the type you would expect to be capable of carrying big weights.

Hypnotize, a finer animal, was bred by Brian Anderton, his wife Lorraine, and brother Hec at White Robe Lodge near Dunedin and sold at the South Island Sales for $20,000 as a 2-year-old in 2001, the year Smart Hunter and Sir Avion dead-heated in the Great Northern Steeplechase.

He is by their former resident sire Yamanin Vital from a Tawfiq mare and is thus bred on the same cross as Counter Punch, winner of the Grand National Steeplechase on August 14.

It's not fair to compare horses of different decades - and even when you compare them from the same decade you have to pick one over the other, unfairly denigrating an outstanding performer.

Was Phar Lap better than Carbine? Who cares, they were both outstanding champions.

Neither Hunterville nor Hypnotize deserve to be considered inferior.

If Hypnotize can rip off the big one next week to go with his 2007 and 2008 victories he'll get a massive shout and he'll deserve it.

Weight is always the critical factor in extreme distance races.

Sprinters can carry big weights, stayers can't.

The reason is extremely simple - they are required to carry them for a much shorter period.

A sprinter might win a Railway or a Telegraph in 68 seconds.

It took Hypnotize 504.25 seconds to win his first Great Northern.

For all the issues over weight, the weather might have the final say for Hypnotize.

The Wanganui Wonder is potent on any type of footing, but is truly devastating in very heavy conditions.

When a horse is asked to carry a massive weight, connections generally look for the best possible footing to make it easier on the horse.

It cannot get heavy enough for Hypnotize. A knee-deep slog in the mud is to Hypnotize what a beach holiday is to the rest of us.

It was heavy then slow for his first two Great Northerns and he may well have done a Hunterville in terms of three straight Northerns but for Ellerslie coming up only dead last year.

Shouldering 69.5kg he finished seven lengths second to Fair King, who had 64.5kg.

No one has ever accused Isaac Lupton of being extravagant, but was there ever a Waverley dairy milker who was?

He is horse racing's Mr Modest, but on Saturday he was fizzing.

"If he's not a champion he's the closest I've ridden to one," is probably the most out-there career comment Lupton has made.

You just can't wait to see his face if the pair get over the line first at Ellerslie on Saturday week.