Peter Bills: Roar of the Lions does not raise fears for June tour

From riches to rags in 160 minutes. It's some achievement, if true. But the panic buttons are being pressed by some observers in Northern Hemisphere rugby after two rounds of the Six Nations Championship.

They believe they have seen a dire indictment of rugby in this neck of the woods. On the evidence thus far, it forebodes a grim tour for the Lions in New Zealand this June.

Sales of Bollinger have hardly rocketed on the latest evidence. Certainly, the decline of England has occurred a lot quicker than anyone could have anticipated. Eight defeats in their last 12 matches hardly suggests the form of kings. New coach Andy Robinson has inherited a building site, not a rugby team.

One critic chose a potential Lions first-test team this week which, if anywhere near accurate, could save the lot of us the time and money in travelling across the world to see an inevitable slaughter. Such a side would be wiped out by the All Blacks.

The backs were: G. Murphy (Ireland); J. Lewsey (England), G. Henson (Wales), B. O'Driscoll (Ireland), S. Williams (Wales); R. O'Gara, P. Stringer (both Ireland). Forwards: M. Corry (England), M. Williams (Wales), J. White (Scotland), R. Sidoli (Wales), P. O'Connell (Ireland), J. Hayes (Ireland), G. Bulloch (Scotland), G. Rowntree (England).

The inference was that England's decline was so sudden and dramatic that only three Englishmen would make the Lions team. I find this defeatist and melodramatic. Nor does history tell us that the Lions are only strong when England provides most of their component parts. The opposite is the truth.

The two most successful Lions tours statistically were to New Zealand in 1971 and South Africa 1974. On each tour, only two Englishmen earned a starting place in the team.

In 1971, there were nine Welshmen, three Irishmen, two Englishmen and a solitary Scot; in 1974, six Welsh, four Scots, three Irish and again, two Englishmen.

The Celtic influence has usually been stronger with the Lions than just the English element. In 1955, when the Lions held the mighty Springboks to a 2-2 series draw against all expectations, most of the key players were from the Celtic countries: Cliff Morgan, Tony O'Reilly, the all-Welsh front row of Meredith, Meredith and Williams, Rhys Williams, Clem Thomas and R. J. Robins, plus Jim Greenwood of Scotland. Jeff Butterfield, his fellow centre W.P.C. Davies and Dick Jeeps were the only Englishmen to make an impact.

If we study the present possible makeup of a Lions test side, the one chosen this week looks paper-thin. Martyn Williams is a decent, wholehearted open side, but if anyone thinks he is in the Richie McCaw class they must believe Cook Strait is a boating lake.

Similarly, Robert Sidoli may look good in the British Isles, but he is hardly the powerful lock likely to make New Zealand rugby men take a step backwards.

Irish tighthead John Hayes would struggle to keep a Lions scrum tight and straight, Gordon Bulloch is game but short of bulk. Even Irishmen who are objective admit Peter Stringer only keeps the No 9 national jersey because of a total lack of challengers.

Such a side would not live with the power and pace of New Zealand. But there may well be other options. It will depend on the second half of the season.

So far Welsh loosehead prop Gethin Jenkins and hooker Meffyn Davies have made favourable impressions. England's Phil Vickery will surely get stronger after his long lay-off and could claim the tighthead role if another Englishman, Julian White, does not regain form.

Ireland's locks, Paul O'Connell and Malcolm O'Kelly, had storming games against Scotland last weekend; if they can do the same against England and France, they will be in pole position to lock the Lions scrum. Another Irishman, No 8 Anthony Foley, could be a key man in the back row.

Jason White of Scotland is the kind of tough, nuggety performer who could do well in New Zealand. Lions coach Sir Clive Woodward will be hoping England's Richard Hill is restored to fitness in time for the tour, and Lawrence Dallaglio remains an option for his experience in the back row.

The triumphs of the 1971 and 1974 Lions owed so much to the wearer of the No 9 jersey. Gareth Edwards was the No 1 in the world and Woodward will have known better than anyone that he had a serious problem once Welshman Robert Howley was forced to retire last October, through injury. Howley had been inked in as the test No 9 and there is no obvious alternative.

But Wales' Dwayne Peel is a young man of ability and potential; so, too, England's Harry Ellis. The second half of this championship offers them an outstanding opportunity to snatch the test jersey. You can hardly say, "Cometh the hour, cometh the man": Peel is 23, Ellis, 22. But both could emerge on this Lions tour.

A Lions backline without Jason Robinson and Jonny Wilkinson is infinitely weakened. Wilkinson is not being rushed back to fitness, which is good news for Woodward. He won't play for England in Ireland next weekend, nor against Italy on March 12. Even the final game, against Scotland on March 19, may be beyond him.

But Wilkinson is on course to return and he could be fresh for the Lions tour. Add a few names such as Vickery, Jenkins, O'Kelly, Dallaglio, Hill, Peel, Robinson and perhaps Greenwood and you have a totally different look to any possible test team.

We're not kicking the cat and strangling the canary quite yet.

* Peter Bills is a rugby writer for Independent News & Media in London.