Graeme Hill: The evidence was there for all to see

Graeme Hill

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Cripes, that sounds nifty. But however nifty it may sound, it doesn't stop it from being a totally meaningless piece of old tripe.

A better thing to remember would be, "Evidence is the best thing to take into account when making decisions or forming opinions. Anything else is blind speculation."

Unfortunately, that statement doesn't fit on a bumper sticker very well and hence it gets less traction than the former, pithier line. What on Earth am I rattling on about? OK. Explanation coming.

The Lions tour of New Zealand has been one of our most eagerly anticipated sporting events, perhaps in living memory when you consider the level of coverage.

We have been talking it, watching it and writing and reading it like it was some frenzied festival of media discourse, this column included. Simultaneously, just below the hype, has been hope that the competition will live up to it, and concern that it might not.

With the Maori game and several provincial encounters into the tour, all we saw was a clumsy, rudderless red side at pretty much every arena. Those that viewed the evidence predicted a sound thrashing at the hands of the All Blacks.

Those that suspected - hoped - that the competition would live up to the expectation could only rely on a hunch. A hunch that the Lions would naturally step up at test match time. A hunch that the Lions were holding something back or that they had some surprises in store that would rattle the All Black team.

It just happened that there was not a skerrick of evidence to suggest so. And lo, it came to pass that evidence was the best indicator, not the lack of it. You can fill a hole with any bloody thing if you like.

It's wise to be wary, of course, and leading up to the test it was helpful to remember our bullish and quite arrogant attitudes that preceded some outrageous shockers in the recent past. But on those occasions, I believe, you could see cracks opening and points of weakness ready for exposure by smart and talented teams. That was a different All Black outfit facing different opponents.

This lot seem to be a very cohesive unit. Congratulations to Graham Henry for his vision of Ali Williams as man for the big occasion. I had flashbacks of Colin Meads replays during his surging run to the try-line. OK, I'll calm down.

A painfully fascinating thing to observe in sport from time to time is the nightmare of how one player can, on any particular occasion, go blatheringly bung. It happened to Ben Blair in the Super 12 final of 2004, and it happened to Jason Robinson last weekend.

Everything he touched turned to kaakaa and the All Blacks proceeded to poke and prod him without sympathy. I would have substituted him in the first 20 minutes, as much to put him out of his own misery as anything else.

So what of the Lions now? Cue "balloon deflating" noise. The currency of the tour was devalued with Dallaglio falling over and it took another sad dive with O'Driscoll dislocated out of any more games. What a shame, no matter how it happened. Regarding Lions' chances this Saturday? We'll have to see who Sir Clive puts on the park. Maybe just pick a Welsh side and ask some questions of the All Blacks the way the Welsh did last year. Why not? Given the possibilities, it's still wise to be wary and only proper not to be arrogant, but I think we can be excused for being confident.

There was NO plan B. There was NO surprise. There was NO step-up. There WAS a repeat of everything that they'd indicated they didn't have during the build-up. Absence of evidence is just that. No evidence.

* Graeme Hill hosts the 12pm to 4pm show on Radio Sport.