Cycling: Australian medal forecast needs reality check

The Australian Olympic Committee's inflated gold medal forecast for the London Games needs a reassessment following the track cycling world championships.

The harsh reality check is that Great Britain are on course to finish well ahead of Australia on the overall medal table after they prevailed in Olympic events at the world championships which concluded in Melbourne tonight.

The AOC's benchmarking figures late last year, which put Australia fourth on a projected medal table for London with 15 gold, one more than Britain, were based on world championship or equivalent events for 2011.

They included the six gold medals won by Australia and the one claimed by Britain in Olympic events at last year's track cycling world championships, results that will not be repeated in London.

Going into the final day of the Melbourne world titles with one Olympic event remaining, Britain had won four gold in Olympic events and Australia had claimed three.

Those figures would swing the predicted gold medal haul in London to 17 for Britain and 12 for Australia, elevating the hosts into fourth place behind China, the United States and Russia.

With 12 gold medals, Australia would slip behind Japan, France and Germany, potentially into eighth place, its worst ranking since the 1992 Barcelona Games.

Despite the drop from the anomalous results of the 2011 world championships, Australia's track cyclists are still in a good position for London.

Certainly well ahead of the disappointing one silver they brought home from Beijing in 2008.

Although they lost the three world titles they were banking on as the best hopes for gold in London, they were relinquished by the barest of margins.

Two of them fell to Britain - the men's team pursuit and Anna Meares' individual sprint title - and it took world records in the pursuit and women's team sprint to topple the Australians.

Australia's gold medals came from Meares in the women's keirin and Glenn O'Shea in the men's omnium, while the men's team sprint had a lucky win when they were elevated from the bronze medal ride after fastest qualifier Germany was disqualified from the final.
With some perspective, the Australians can see they have great depth and are only a few hundredths of a second from converting several silvers into gold.

- AAP