KEY POINTS:
Perhaps the brilliant English catching, Ryan Sidebottom's hat-trick, Monty's spitters and the Black Caps' positive approach - that backfired so spectacularly - is a godsend for New Zealand.
England has no choice but to chase a reasonable target because New Zealand looks like having no choice over what to set them. Had Daniel Vettori had a choice (although the Black Caps are not all out yet), I've no doubt he would have erred on the cautious, conservative side. That would have been understandable.
Think back to Vettori's first real test as a captain and it was a poor showing in South Africa and, against quality opposition, he may not be too disappointed with a drawn series. Therefore, given this is only a three-test series, it is unlikely he would be prepared to lose the first game for the sake of going one up - especially with the likely flat surfaces that await in Wellington and Napier.
If the aggressive approach had gone to plan yesterday, I'd imagine England would have been chasing something in the vicinity of 340 in five hours. Actually, they wouldn't have been chasing it as I doubt they would have had a crack. The pitch is definitely showing signs of wear but it is far from a minefield. A reasonable side should be able to defend on it for five hours - however, attacking, as we saw yesterday, is a different matter.
Let's assume that New Zealand attain a lead of 290. With five-and-a-half hours to chase a medium total, England will definitely be interested but pushing and working on a fifth day wicket can be quite perilous.
Vettori may not win this game with his declaration skills but he might just win it with his bowling and batting. He had a very good hand in the first innings, ensuring New Zealand got through to a commanding first innings total.
When that total looked a little less than commanding following the second innings calamities, he applied himself and could add the crucial runs. However, give him the ball on a varying surface with batsmen looking to be positive and his bowling variations could quickly become wicket-taking variations.
As wickets tumbled yesterday, I couldn't help casting my mind back to the last test series between these two teams - England 2004 - and the first test at Lord's. New Zealand got themselves into a little trouble in their second innings and were bowled out, leaving England a reasonable run chase that a variable wicket should have made difficult.
New Zealand took the field knowing they had less than they would have liked but confident all the same. They did not bowl well and were soundly beaten. Key bowlers were out of form in England then, including Vettori. Things are a little different this time round. Vettori is at the top of his game, he has a very good foil in Jeetan Patel and the seamers are bowling accurately.
So it's wrong to sort of hope New Zealand get dismissed early tomorrow because it just may mean the Black Caps win.
