Dev Nadkarni: Terror network appears to be taking control

The brutal attack by as-yet-unidentified gunmen on the visiting Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore last Tuesday is set to further reinforce international perception of Pakistan as a state on the brink.

The terror machine in Pakistan is clearly succeeding in sending signals to the international community that it considers the democratic Government propped up by Western funding and ideology completely irrelevant and can strike anywhere at will.

Tuesday's attacks and the Mumbai carnage in November were both carefully orchestrated on foreign targets in a bid to extract wide international publicity.

Pakistan's tame response to the events after the Mumbai attacks - despite mounting international pressure - and the helplessness shown by the authorities after the attack on the visiting cricketers highlight the Administration's marginalisation.

The world's worst fears seem to be coming true: nobody is sure who runs Pakistan.

The attacks on the cricket team came despite assurances of top-grade security. English match referee Chris Board, who was in one of the buses that was fired upon, later told the media, "The Pakistan Cricket Board assured me through email that all security would be taken care of - presidential-style security. Clearly that didn't happen."

As well as sending signals to the world about its growing hold even in Pakistan's cities far away from their longtime stranglehold of the provinces in the northwest, the terror network has sought to tell the common people in no uncertain terms whose writ runs.

Like elsewhere in South Asia, cricket is followed with religious zeal in Pakistan and is without doubt that country's most loved sport. The attack has now ensured that no cricketing nation will send its team to play in Pakistan.

New Zealand had no choice but to postpone the tour scheduled for November this year, and the International Cricket Council has voiced doubts whether Pakistan could still co-host the 2011 World Cup.

Niranjan Shah, vice-chairman of the Indian Premier League, which hosts the popular Twenty20 tournaments with players from all over the world, told me in Wellington that any plans for tournaments involving playing in Pakistan would be on hold until a clearer picture emerges on the security situation and how the cricket-playing nations react in the coming months.

As the terror attacks spread across Pakistan -particularly towards its eastern border with India, where most of its cities are located - fear of terrorists' access to the country's nuclear Establishment continues to grow in international security circles. But a lack of clarity about the power structure in Pakistan makes it hard for the international community to deal with the situation.

The United States' latest tactic has been an approach of dividing the Taleban ("good" Taleban vs "bad" Taleban) with the Pakistan Army's support.

The Administration and the US have lately been supporting Maulana Fazlullah against Baitullah Mehsud, whose territories have recently been bombed by US drones.

President Zardari's Administration has recently made deals with some extremist factions like those of Fazlullah to give up their opposition to Western forces in return for allowing Sharia law to be imposed in some of the areas under their control.

There have also been allegations that money has been used to buy influence over some factions and to get them to side with the coalition forces in Afghanistan. Some US$6 million has allegedly been given to Maulana Fazlullah for his support.

But that tactic may already be coming unstuck. Last Tuesday's attacks in Lahore came on the same day as the Pakistan Army's claim of a successful operation in beating Taleban forces back in a remote area on the Afghan-Pakistan border.

In any case, observers are questioning the wisdom of supporting one faction over the other using pecuniary rewards and even concessions of imposing an alternative legal system in the areas of their influence, when the ideologies of both factions are identical.

Because of poor understanding of the power play between Pakistan's military, its intelligence machinery and the links some of their senior elements have with terror networks like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and in turn the links that this organisation has with the Taleban and al Qaeda, the West continues to muddle with weak strategies.

With the threat of the terror network getting ever closer to Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure, the US is preparing to triple its aid to the Pakistan military to US$1.5 billion, and Japan will be hosting a donor conference next month to raise funds for the troubled country.

But the West has no mechanism to ensure the funds will not end up in the wrong hands.

* Dev Nadkarni is an Auckland journalist.