In 2001 New Zealand played on the arrogance of their Australian opponents and nearly pulled off a couple of test victories. Australia were on a crusade to speed up test cricket and force results. They set New Zealand a very makeable target at Brisbane and then nearly lost at Perth when they chased a huge target low into their batting order.
The resting of Glenn McGrath for the upcoming Chappell/Hadlee series smacks of arrogance once again and just might be the opening the Black Caps need.
McGrath's unnerving accuracy is the bane of many batsmen and the pressure he exerts early in both forms of the game is often key to Australia's success at taking an early upper hand in many games.
His absence in England, especially in the second Ashes test, was a huge psychological lift for the English. The Black Caps need to take advantage of his absence and attack Australia from the very first ball at Eden Park on December 3.
While McGrath is only one man and Australia have many match-winners capable of single-handedly taking a game, he is a shining star. Without him the gloss is taken off the Australian bowling unit somewhat.
Brett Lee is more impressive in one-day cricket than test cricket. He attacks the batsman and, with that, coughs up runs. A few runs as trade off for wickets is tolerable if the other end is sewn up - McGrath's end. With McGrath not there, the tandem effect is not present and thus an opportunity is presented.
Andrew Symonds, Brad Hogg and Cam White are handy bowlers but New Zealand's middle order should be capable of knocking them round and picking up singles through the middle of the innings. If the Kiwis get away to a good start, then these singles and safer play in the middle provide substance for a big score.
However, when a side is rebuilding against these bowlers or in desperate need to increase the run-rate then they become very dangerous bowlers. Nathan Bracken, Stuart Clark and Michael Lewis are good bowlers but certainly don't possess the same psychological hold McGrath does.
Of course the Black Caps must take advantage of the resting McGrath, the injuries to Shane Watson and Damien Martyn and the stubborn refusal to bring back the in-form Matthew Hayden. For this to happen, the planets will need to be in alignment and our own stars must shine.
It is a huge blow to lose Stephen Fleming and that sort of feels like one-all in response to the missing McGrath.
But Nathan Astle is due. Astle is a match-winner against good opposition but at times he can seem like a cheap bag of fireworks - fizzer after fizzer - but, just when you think he's a dud, he explodes in radiant brilliance that sends you scurrying back to the same shop next year.
The hole at the top of Australian order may just be the spark of confidence he needs to blow up in the face of the unwary Australians.
<EM>Mark Richardson:</EM> McGrath's absence is great news for Black Caps
Opinion by
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