Three questions: Who is most vulnerable to an upset

Black Caps batsmen Martin Guptill celebrates after scoring a century. ICC Cricket World Cup match between New Zealand and Bangladesh. Photo / Christine Cornege.

The Herald's cricket experts Dylan Cleaver, David Leggat and Andrew Alderson answer three questions about the Cricket World Cup.

1. On the basis that New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and India are rated quarter-final favourites, which of them is most vulnerable to an upset?

Dylan Cleaver: I wouldn't consider Sri Lanka beating South Africa as a genuine upset, given that the Proteas' batting outside of AB de Villiers has been jittery and you can never discount a team that has Kumar Sangakkara in it. Given that, the only other outsider with a puncher's chance is West Indies (shock, horror). There's been an element of smoke and mirrors to New Zealand's campaign thus far. We don't actually know how well they're batting and they didn't look particularly flash chasing Bangladesh's 288 on the Seddon Park postage stamp. I'd still back them to beat the Windies eight out of 10 times, you just hope it's not one of the two.

David Leggat: Discount tomorrow night's game as Sri Lanka must now be close to even money. I'll plump for Australia. Pakistan's capacity to surprise is well known. A fortnight ago you might not have had them in the quarter-finals. Now they have found some mojo. They will need to be massively 'up' for it, key players must stand tall but it's not out completely of the question. They may not be Imran Khan's 'cornered tigers' of 1992 but they have a bit about them. Plus, it would be a hoot watching Daveywarner drag his bottom lip off Adelaide Oval.

Andrew Alderson: South Africa. Cricket fans - and the players - are aware the jitters take hold from here, especially in the toughest quarter-final against Sri Lanka. A squad of the Proteas' pedigree and balance would be a worthy finalist but needs to extend itself. AB De Villiers is a batting match-winner, now Dale Steyn needs to play his part with the ball. Sri Lanka are capable of cruising past 300 but have looked limited with the ball.

2: Adam Milne is expected to be fit to face the West Indies after a shoulder injury ruled him out of the Bangladesh game. However, should there be any late problems, do you favour Kyle Mills or Mitchell McClenaghan as his replacement?

DC: If I was swapping seamer for seamer, Mills, but I'd be thinking seriously about playing Nathan McCullum and getting 20 overs from a combination of Corey Anderson, McCullum and Grant Elliott. McCullum gives you a little more batting depth and vastly superior fielding. McClenaghan had a big opportunity against Bangladesh and was deficient. Mills will do you a job, so is a safer option.

DL: Mills. McClenaghan was unlucky against Bangladesh in that it went wrong for him, no matter how hard he tried. You know what you'll get from Mills, although he, too, would be facing a five-week layoff from game time. The other, remote, option would be Nathan McCullum coming in. looking to play to a perceived West Indian weakness.

AA: Mitchell McClenaghan. New Zealand need wickets against the West Indies to thwart momentum. McClenaghan has the fifth-best ODI strike rate (26.3) of those to bowl more than 1000 balls. During the West Indies ODI tour in 2013-14 he took eight wickets at a strike rate of 20. Mills' strike rate is 34.2 and during that West Indies tour he took three wickets; one every 40 balls. In Mills' defence, he restricted Pakistan with two for 29 in his most recent ODI, at Wellington. He's also dismissed Chris Gayle six times in 11 ODIs.

3: Excluding the West Indies, which team remaining in the cup has the potential to pose New Zealand more problems than the others from hereon in?

DC: South Africa and Australia both have attacks that could cause some problems to a New Zealand batting lineup that isn't on top of its game. I'd back them in against any other team.

DL: South Africa would be a handful, plus Australia, at least partly for revenge reasons. South Africa loom in the semifinals and AB de Villiers could again make mincemeat of Eden Park's puny dimensions. Morne Morkel and Dale Steyn like bowling against us too. Australia have admitted they were jittery before the pool game at Eden Park. They are now rolling along. If they meet again it will be in the final. Melbourne Cricket Ground, 80-odd thousand. The occasion, and venue, will suit the Aussies. Tough job, if they get that far.

AA: Australia. It's hard to imagine their batting folding in the same manner as Eden Park, and the New Zealand batsmen - Kane Williamson and Brendon McCullum aside - would need to work on their ability to play 145km/h pace when the ball's hooping.