The 2019 runners-up emphatically began their quest to go one better in India, handily winning their first four matches. But after falling short against the hosts, their semifinal fate is now in balance.
The third-placed Black Caps first face being leapfrogged by their neighbours if they suffer a second setback in Dharamsala tonight.
Next for New Zealand comes a clash on Wednesday against a high-flying South Africa who blitzed four opponents by more than 100 runs in their first five games – while also suffering the shock of the tournament against the Netherlands.
Then, next Saturday, Pakistan will round out this pivotal eight-day stretch, before the Black Caps close pool play against another semifinal contender in Sri Lanka.
To feel safe about reaching the final four at a sixth straight white-ball World Cup, Gary Stead’s side will want two wins in their last four games. To be confident of avoiding a semifinal against a host currently looking unbeatable, they will likely need more.
It’s a suddenly precarious outlook given the ease with which they progressed through the first part of their schedule, though a thumping of England has since been cast in a different light by the defending champions’ struggles.
But New Zealand are accustomed to navigating unforgiving formats and having enough good days when needed, hoping the next is imminent after a pleasant break in Dharamsala.
Following their four-wicket loss to India on Monday, the players enjoyed a few days to explore a picturesque city surrounded by forest and sitting on the edge of the Himalayas.
Along with the fresh air, other perks included a trip to a fifth-generation tea plantation and an audience at the residence of the 14th Dalai Lama, spiritual leader of the Tibetan government-in-exile based in the mountain town.
The good feeling engendered by such an occasion can only help ahead of tonight’s match, especially since the opposition are riding a wave of their own.
After their own campaign hit an early stumble, Australia have begun to better resemble five-time champions, dispatching Sri Lanka and Pakistan before recording the largest winning margin in men’s ODI World Cup history against the Netherlands.
That 309-run destruction was built on tons from David Warner and Glenn Maxwell – the latter smashing 106 from 44 deliveries – but Mitchell Santner was equally wary of a bowling attack led by Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood.
“We know how good Australia are in these world events, and we play them a lot. They’ve got a lot of matchwinners,” said the Black Caps allrounder. “With the ball, their big three is outstanding, then in these kind of conditions Max has done a very good job and we know how good [Adam Zampa] is.”
It remains to be seen whether the pace trio or the spin of Zampa and Maxwell will have greater impact tonight. The match will be played on a different surface to the changeable pitch that India navigated well on Monday, while this will be the Black Caps’ first day game of the tournament.
“Having a balanced squad is a big one, and I think we do have that,” said Santner, set to play his 100th ODI. “Adapting as quickly as possible has been key so far – some pitches look like they might play different to what they do – and then it’s about communicating between the bowling unit what’s working.”
-Kris Shannon
History
Played 141 times: Black Caps won 39, Australia won 95, seven no result.
TAB odds
Black Caps $2.30, Australia $1.60.
Where to watch
Sky Sport 1 from 5.30pm tonight. The Herald will have ball-by-ball updates. Plus, the Alternative Commentary Collective is running a live Watch Along of the game on their Facebook & YouTube pages
Herald prediction
Australia by three wickets/20 runs.