KEY POINTS:
Leaving patriotism out of it for the moment, I find it hard to go past South Africa or Sri Lanka for a World Cup winner.
Both teams have shown consistent form in the build-up, are bristling with firepower, and are flexible enough to adapt to the conditions of the day.
This is critical during a World Cup tournament.
It's not unusual to see one team getting on a roll but most of the others are usually caught up in a huge second-round dogfight, where the ability to adjust can often mean the difference between survival and elimination.
I've been impressed with what I've seen from South Africa over the past year, going right back to the world record run-chase against Australia at Johannesburg.
The new world No 1 nation have a good balance about their line-up, helped by all-rounders of the quality of Jacques Kallis, Andrew Hall and Shaun Pollock, and are probably more dangerous than they've been in any of their previous campaigns.
They've got a bit to play for, too - after their nightmare World Cup record so far.
In 1992 they were nobbled by Richie Benaud's crazy rain rule; in 1996 they opted to rest Allan Donald in their quarter-final against the West Indies and lost, in 1999 they tied their semi against Australia and lost on run-rate, and in 2003 Pollock miscalculated his Duckworth-Lewis calculations by one run.
If there's ever going to be a team desperate for redemption in the West Indies, it's South Africa, and right now they seem to have the personnel and form to make life a misery for most of their opponents.
Sri Lanka were impressive in New Zealand earlier this summer and have improved their record on the road to such an extent that I'd be highly surprised if they don't get the better of one of the semifinals.
If anything, I reckon the 2007 Sri Lankan side is better than the 1996 version that won the final against Australia at Lahore.
Kumar Sangakkara and Sanath Jayasuriya are in the form of their lives, Mahela Jayawadene is a top-drawer player and they've got a lot of quality batting support.
Add a bowling attack that includes Muttiah Muralitharan, Chaminda Vaas and Lasith Malinga and it's clear that Sri Lanka are a real threat.
Like Sir Vivian Richards - who this week expressed scepticism about Australia's self-proclaimed favouritism - I'm also not convinced that Ricky Ponting's side are in World Cup-winning shape.
The other day I heard the Australian skipper reacting to his side's five consecutive losses by conceding they'd been "drifting" - and had to laugh. To me it looked closer to an uncontrolled plummet.
Richards is right - the world is seeing cracks in the Australians' armour and that's going to make their opponents much more difficult to beat over the course of the tournament.
Australia are like a lot of teams at this World Cup, they've got an immensely strong batting line-up but have genuine questions hovering over their bowling.
India, Pakistan and the West Indies fall into this category as well. Batting to die for, but holes in the attack, leading to concerns that they'll struggle to defend totals or dismiss opposition line-ups.
And England have enjoyed their day in their sun. I can't see them getting up again for the World Cup despite the fact they've welcomed back Michael Vaughan and their key-all-rounder Kevin Pietersen.
As for New Zealand, I view them as a completely unknown quantity. They've got a decent squad; solid batting, a reasonable attack and a couple of outstanding all-rounders who provide wonderful balance to the line-up.
But they're horribly inconsistent, a fact highlighted by their remarkable finish to their home programme, when they whitewashed Australia after losing seven of their previous nine games. Then they lost to Bangladesh in a warm-up game.
If they can get on the sort of roll they created in 1992, they'll take a lot of stopping because I think this side are far superior to that outfit, and have a far better understanding of how to win the big games.
For New Zealand to go the distance, they have to beat England at St Lucia next Friday and keep their noses ahead of the chasing pack throughout the Super Eights.
If they can play well enough for long enough to grab one of the semifinal spots, their challenge is then to simply put together two good performances. From what we saw last month, they're well capable of that.
