Cricket World Cup: What to expect as top eight get down to nitty-gritty

Australian bowler Mitchell Starc is sure to be a force against Pakistan. Photo / Brett Phibbs

David Leggat runs the rule over this week's quarter-finals.

South Africa v Sri Lanka, Sydney, 4.30pm today

The tightest of the four contests, pitching formidable South African bowling against dazzling Sri Lankan batting. Looked at another way, you have AB de Villiers and Hashim Amla against, well, a Sri Lankan bowling group which doesn't really threaten, save the freakish Lasith Malinga.

South Africa have the C word (choke) lurking in the back of their minds, with good reason. They were twice beaten in pool play, by India comfortably, and Pakistan on a stirring night at Eden Park. Morne Morkel and legspinner Imran Tahir have been their best bowlers, Dale Steyn a surprisingly muted presence.

As for the Sri Lankans, Kumar Sangakkara is top runmaker, 496 at 124 in a stirring finale before retirement; Tillakaratne Dilshan is averaging 79, Lahiru Thirimanne 52 and captain Angela Mathews 44. The one name missing is Mahela Jayawardene, whose century against Afghanistan dominates his aggregate of 121 runs. This will be his final match if Sri Lanka lose. Expect him to rouse himself. Malinga is Sri Lanka's standout bowler but can they get enough out of the others?

Tip: Sri Lanka, provided they get de Villiers early, to continue South Africa's Cup misery.

TAB odds: South Africa $1.45, Sri Lanka $2.60

India v Bangladesh, Melbourne, 4.30pm tomorrow

Fairly straightforward. India's batting strength is deep and the top six have all made runs in pool play.

The pleasant (for Indian fans) surprise has been the quality of their bowling, which was expected to be their weaker skill set. It is, but in Mohammad Shami they have a bustling seamer with 15 wickets from five games at just 12.6 apiece, behind only Mitchell Starc's 16. Mohit Sharma and Umesh Yadav have 10 apiece.

Bangladesh are rising rapidly as an ODI unit. They need a handful of key players to deliver to be any chance - Tamim Iqbal, Shakib al Hasan, Mushfiqur Rahim and Mahmudullah with the bat; Rubel Hossain, captain Mashrafe Mortaza and Shakib with the ball, but they've taken only 20 wickets between them.

Bangladesh fancy this match-up, certainly more than facing South Africa, which would have happened had they beaten New Zealand last week. They feel they know the Indians' game best, although their record, three wins from 28 clashes, shouts no brainer.

Tip: India with a bit to spare.

TAB odds: India $1.15, Bangladesh $5

Australia v Pakistan, Adelaide, 4.30pm Friday

Australia to charge through Pakistan? Hold your horses. Different settings and formats, yes, but Pakistan flogged Australia 2-0 in their test series in the UAE in October. Granted they lost the ODI rubber 3-0 and are 2-10 in their ODI clashes in the past five years. However they are better now that they are playing five specialist bowlers and in Wahab Riaz they have a potent, 150km/h performer.

Add in big Mohammad Irfan, Sohail Khan and Rahat Ali and they'll go hard at the Aussie batsmen.

The batting is variable, but Sarfraz Ahmed's century against Ireland won't hurt and captain Misbah-ul-Haq is a redoubtable battler.

Australia have one speed. Mitchell Starc has been outstanding, 16 wickets at 8.5, outshining Mitchell Johnson. The batting speaks for itself.

One intriguing point: it could pit six fast, or fast-medium left armers - Starc, Johnson and James Faulkner, against Irfan, Riaz and Rahat.

Tip: Australia, but not without a wobble or two.

TAB odds: Australia $1.22, Pakistan $4

New Zealand v West Indies, Wellington, 2pm Saturday

It's all been going swimmingly for the co-hosts. The stunning wins over England and Australia, other pool games won comfortably enough, then a tight finish against Bangladesh as a sharp reminder steadily built the support and the belief that, maybe, this could be their time.

The lead bowlers Trent Boult, Tim Southee and Dan Vettori have been as effective a trio as any in the tournament. Brendon McCullum has been an uber-attack minded skipper and is averaging 42 with a strike rate of 187. However the middle order still doesn't entirely convince.

The West Indies are erratic but in Jason Holder have an admirable young leader. Chris Gayle is the big batting threat, but close inspection of his recent record shows more spots than a teenager.

The suspicion is their collective batting is not good enough and if New Zealand see off Holder and impressive Jerome Taylor, they could win well. But this is knockout cricket.

Tip: New Zealand, handily enough.

TAB odds: New Zealand $1.27, West Indies $3.50