Cricket World Cup: Loss at the toss may be good start

Brendon McCullum's reputation as a terrible coin tosser is actually undeserved when it comes to one-day cricket. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Black Caps win more ODIs when McCullum calls it wrong — although it seems Eden Park is not place to do it.

Half an hour before today's World Cup semifinal, referee David Boon, a former Australian opening batsman, will hand Brendon McCullum an official ICC commemorative coin.

McCullum will flick it in the air and South African captain AB de Villiers will call. Heads or tails? New Zealand will hold its collective breath - praying that de Villiers gets his call right. The toss is always crucial.

Hang on. He said right? RIGHT? We want South Africa to win the toss? Isn't it a huge advantage to get to decide whether to bat or bowl first depending on the conditions?

Well, no. At least not when Brendon McCullum is captain. McCullum's reputation as a terrible coin tosser is actually undeserved when it comes to one-day cricket.

In 40 One Day International matches as Black Caps captain since taking the job permanently from Ross Taylor, McCullum has won the toss 19 times - just a touch under the 50 per cent mark that would be expected, so he's hardly unlucky. Of the 19 matches when the coin has fallen McCullum's way, the Kiwis have notched 10 wins, eight losses and one no result. Adjusting for the no-result, that means they win 55 per cent of their matches when McCullum decides who bats first.

Of the 21 matches when the opposition have won the toss, McCullum's Black Caps have won 13 and lost just five, with two matches not producing results and another ending in a tie. That means the Black Caps win 72 per cent of matches that produce a result when McCullum loses the toss.

It's pretty clear, then, that the best thing for New Zealand today is for de Villiers to call correctly.

Or is it? According to Opta, the Black Caps have lost the toss in every one of the last 12 ODIs they have played at Eden Park. They have been put into bat on nine of these occasions, winning just once. Oh dear.

Brendon McCullum tossing as Black Caps captain in last 40 ODIs:
• Won 19 (10 wins, 8 losses, 1 no result)
• Lost 21 (13 wins, 5 losses, 2 no results, 1 tie)
• Winning percentage* when he wins toss: 55
• Winning percentage* when he loses toss: 72
* When a result is achieved