Cricket: Too soon to write teams off

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When is too early to rule out a subcontinental team winning this World Cup?

Many have discounted it, having seen India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan in action recently, but a subcontinental team has not only been in the final at each of the last six tournaments, but also won three - Pakistan (1992), Sri Lanka (1996) and India (2011).

It's easy to forget, especially for someone predicting a meeting of South Africa and New Zealand - two sides who have never made the final - in Melbourne on March 29.

One can pontificate about these teams facing unfamiliar conditions but, in 2015, this is surely a fallacy when players regularly travel the world playing bilateral series. The conditions are not what they've grown up with, but cricketers are capable of adapting.

Take a trio of veterans from the main subcontinental contenders. India's Mahendra Singh Dhoni, Pakistan's Shahid Afridi and Sri Lanka's Kumar Sangakkara have played as many ODIs, if not more, in the climate and on the surfaces as players in the host sides.

In Australasia, Dhoni has played 31 matches, Afridi 45 and Sangakkara 67. It's more than Corey Anderson, Trent Boult, Tom Latham, Adam Milne, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Marsh have each played in their careers. The subcontinental trio also have better averages in Australasia than in their overall ODI careers.

There's also no lack of incentive for subcontinental players to showcase their talents when they're on a stage in which scouts from Twenty20 competitions such as the Indian Premier League, Australia's Big Bash and England's T20 Blast will be keeping tabs on as they thumb their chequebooks.

If Bangladesh and Afghanistan are ruled out as World Cup contenders, the remaining trio face a scenario where progress is possible but they are reliant on batting orders getting high totals to protect potentially vulnerable bowling.

In their three completed matches since December, India lost each by posting an overall run rate of 4.50 with a bowling attack which took 14 of a possible 30 wickets.

During the same period, Pakistan won two of seven matches - both against New Zealand - by scoring at a run rate of 5.52 but conceding 5.78. They bowled out New Zealand only once in seven attempts.

Sri Lanka have had the most bowing success of the trio and appear best-placed to advance. In 11 completed matches before yesterday's opener, they won five and lost six against England and New Zealand as opposition. They scored at a run rate of 5.47 and conceded at 5.29 but won on the five occasions they bowled teams out.

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