KEY POINTS:
GROS ISLET - New Zealand arrived on the island that will help shape their World Cup destiny aware that for all the preparations and plans, the simple toss of a coin could influence their cricketing fortunes in the Caribbean.
Stephen Fleming's ability to call correctly - or the misjudgment of his adversaries - threatens to have a bearing throughout the campaign, Saturday's group C match with England being a case in point.
With matches scheduled to begin at 9.30am local time, when wickets are at their liveliest, winning the toss could prove the pivotal moment before the openers take guard.
"We're a little bit alarmed about the bearing the toss will play with these early starts," the captain admitted.
"We've got to gear up and combat that [if New Zealand lose and bat] or use it the best we can." The Black Caps can justifiably be on edge when Fleming and Michael Vaughan head to the middle of Beausejour Stadium.
Fleming has a 100-win, 108-loss record from tenure at the helm of the one-day side and, to dwell on the negative, four of the last five times the decision was taken out of his hands New Zealand have lost.
On a positive note, when the Black Caps were put in to bat in their last warm-up match against Sri Lanka in Barbados, they saw off the early demons and posted 285 - an experience that has at least boosted confidence.
While Fleming relies on guesswork and good fortune at the toss, another off-field consideration requiring a more scientific approach will be imperative to New Zealand's chances of heading into the Super Eight phase on the front foot.
Although evidence from the series of warm-up games - on pitches that will not be used for the 51-match tournament - the side winning the toss is usually wise to bowl first and chase down totals when the wicket settles down.
New Zealand paid the penalty for batting first against Bangladesh, losing by two wickets after slumping to 75 for six before mustering 226.
However, they made a far better fist of setting the pace against Sri Lanka with Lou Vincent, Fleming and Peter Fulton all posting half centuries before New Zealand got home by 18 runs.
Though the trend suggests bowling first, Fleming said the ability to assess how the wickets - many of which are brand new or relaid - will behave over the course of 100 overs was vital.
"The unknown for me is the assessment of conditions and the way teams adjust - how fast that takes place is going to be one of the keys to going forward."
- NZPA
