Former New Zealand captain Daniel Vettori has pinpointed star seamer Trent Boult as the player who needs to step up if the Black Caps are to take down Australia at the Cricket World Cup.
The two sides clash at Lord's this weekend in a game which could potentially be a semifinal preview, and with the Black Caps coming off a defeat where they were outplayed by Pakistan.
On the other side of the ledger, Australia have won their last four games, including a dominant win over England, and have an opening partnership that has been crushing all-comers.
David Warner and Aaron Finch have combined for 642 runs as an opening pair at the World Cup, at an average opening stand of 91. That's remarkably three times as many runs as the next most profitable pairing – Pakistan's Imam ul-Haq and Fakhar Zaman – and Vettori sees removing the Aussie openers cheaply as New Zealand's biggest challenge.
"Aaron Finch and David Warner have been exceptional in this tournament," Vettori wrote in a column for the ICC.
"They have set Australia up. No one else has had to bat that much. The ability to dismiss those two early on will be crucial."
Vettori pegs Boult as the man for the job.
"He bowls exceptionally well to left-handers, in fact he bowls exceptionally well to everyone. If the conditions suit him at Lord's, then they will really push him out there as an attacking weapon to try to break through that opening partnership that Australia have relied on."
At the other end of the scale, Black Caps openers Martin Guptill and Colin Munro have struggled since their opening success against Sri Lanka, but Vettori is picking Guptill for an impending big score after the experienced opener was dismissed cheaply once more in their loss to Pakistan.
"He's such a good player and has had such a proven record for New Zealand for a really long time.
"He's put together a phenomenal career and every time he misses out, it feels like he's just closer to doing something special.
"That's how I continue to think about him. If you look at the last World Cup, he started a little slow and then got a hundred against Bangladesh and everyone knows what he did in the quarter-final against the West Indies [in case you don't – he blasted a World Cup-record 237 not out].
"New Zealand will say to themselves they have hopefully got another four games of cricket and within those four games, Guptill, in particular, could make a real difference to our chances."
Vettori is also not expecting there to be a rash of changes after the Pakistan defeat.
"This team doesn't panic and hasn't for a long time.
"They have been playing a style of cricket that has delivered success. That success breeds confidence and calmness, so there is no point in changing strategy just because of one loss.
"They will stay true to how they have played for a number of years."
The Alternative Commentary Collective are podcasting their way through the World Cup. Known for their unconventional sports analysis and off-kilter banter, the ACC have come to ask the tough questions. Here's the latest episode of 'The Agenda':