Only one thing seems certain about the winner of the 2009 Champions Trophy one day tournament in South Africa this week - it won't be the West Indies.
Hosts South Africa are among the favourites, particularly as they are at home and are smarting from a perceived snub that none of their number - other than skipper Graeme Smith - was good enough to win nomination for the ICC awards, in spite of being the top-ranked team in test and one day cricket.
Australia, the defending champions have six parts completed what promises to be a 7-0 whitewash of ailing England and will thus arrive at the Trophy in fine fettle while ever-dangerous India, complete with their stars, are capable of beating anybody and everybody.
The West Indies aren't. Their team have been decimated by a player rebellion and humiliated by Bangladesh. But the West Indies are grouped with world champions Australia, World Twenty20 winners Pakistan and India - and would have struggled even if the likes of captain Chris Gayle, Shivnarine Chanderpaul and Ramnaresh Sarwan were available.
But they, as well as other colleagues, are locked in a bitter dispute over contracts, fees and image rights which has dragged on for months.
The ICC has left open the door so the rebels can be readmitted to the fold even at the last minute but it seems the might of the West Indies will be much diluted. They have a second-string side of Caribbean journeymen and youngsters for this tournament.
"I want the people in the Caribbean to know this is a West Indies team dedicated to West Indies cricket. This is not a second-string team. We will do the six million people of the Caribbean proud at the Champions Trophy," said Floyd Reifer, drafted in as captain in the absence of Gayle.
They didn't do too flash in their warm-up match against South Africa yesterday.
South Africa batted first, hitting 388 off their 50 overs with Smith (83 off 74 balls), Jacques Kallis (86 off 90) and a whirlwind 80 not out, off just 49 balls and including four 4s and five 6s from JP Duminy shattered the West Indian attack.
So did a blazing 55 off 27 balls by wicketkeeper Mark Boucher. All this gave rise to some nasty-looking bowling statistics with opening bowler Tino Best going for 88 runs off his 10 overs and David Bernard (71 runs) and Darren Sammy (76) also going for plenty off their 10.
The West Indies play Sri Lanka - who lost to Pakistan, dangerous dark horses, in their warm-up match yesterday - today but seem to have little hope of progressing to the finals.
There is also a bigger picture. One day international cricket is now facing fan and player tiredness with the concept that revolutionised the game and this tournament will be crucial if it is to be revitalised.
The ICC has shaken things up this year by going for quality rather than quantity. The format is focused, with only the top eight teams in the world competing for the title - the smallest since the competition began in 1998. This should ensure high quality cricket throughout the two weeks. The eight teams have been divided into two groups of four each for the initial group stage of the tournament.
In group B, South Africa is favourite and New Zealand, if they are to progress to the finals will somehow have to find a way to finish in the top two, ahead of England and Sri Lanka, who gave them a decent hiding in the recent ODI series in Sri Lanka.
The Proteas have a powerful batting line up with Kallis, Herschelle Gibbs and Smith a daunting prospect for the other teams. Kallis is the best-performed player at the Trophy, topping the list of the highest run getters amongst current players, with 564 runs in 14 Champions Trophy matches at an average of 51.27.
His bowling figures are equally impressive with 19 wickets and a best of 5 for 30.
The Sri Lankans are always dangerous in this format but were comfortably dealt with by Pakistan in their warm-up game. Ironically, most of those who performed well against New Zealand recently dipped out as Pakistan put the pressure on with 306 for eight in their 50-over innings.
Opener Kanmran Akmal top scored with a patient 82, setting the stage for knocks from Misbah-ul-Haq (72) and 62 from Umar Akmal and 36 not out from Shahid Afridi.
Bowlers against whom New Zealand struggled were handled well by the Pakistanis, with Lasith Malinga taking one for 55 off eight overs, Ajanatha Mendis going for 54 off his seven overs (and no wicket) and even Muttiah Muralitharan took two for 43 off his eight overs.
In contrast, the Sri Lankans got off to a poor start with New Zealand series star Tillekeratna Dilshan out for a third-ball duck from which the Sri Lankans never recovered. The bulk of their runs in their innings of 198 all out came in a 102-run partnership between Angelo Mathews (49) and Chamara Kapugedera (59) but they never threatened the Pakistani total.
Champions Trophy
GROUP A
Australia
India
Pakistan
West Indies
GROUP B
South Africa
Sri Lanka
New Zealand
England
MATCHES
* September 22: South Africa vs Sri Lanka.
* September 23: Pakistan vs West Indies.
* September 24: South Africa vs New Zealand.
* September 25: England vs Sri Lanka.
* September 26: Australia vs West Indies, India vs Pakistan.
* September 27: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka, South Africa vs England.
* September 28: Australia vs India.
* September 29: England vs New Zealand.
* September 30: Australia vs Pakistan, India vs West Indies.
* October 2 & 3: Semifinals.
* October 5: Final.
Cricket: West Indies only sure thing
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