Cricket: Playing on the flip side with new one-day rules

Fresh from the Department of Statistics and Supposition: under the new one-day international rules, teams winning the toss have gone on to win the match 40 per cent more often than they have in the past.

That's according to New Zealand coach John Bracewell, a man not averse to throwing the odd red herring into a pool of sharks.

This time, though, it is hard to argue with his analysis. As the Black Caps prepare to face Australia at Eden Park on Saturday - the first time the new rules involving power plays and super subs have made an appearance in New Zealand - one thing is clear: the toss has become critically important.

Not good news when your skipper has been described in the past as "a useless tosser". (Although Stephen Fleming's recent health scare will open the way for Dan Vettori to prove himself with coin in hand.)

Bracewell and his captain Fleming are trenchant critics of the new rules and have seen nothing since their implementation to sway them.

Following the ill-fated tour of South Africa, Fleming said: "I don't accept that the rules are going to be around for a long time and I'm hoping they'll be gone by March or April or whenever the review period comes around."

The review panel will do well to see if the New Zealand coach's belief that the coin is playing too big a role has credence, rather than fobbing it off as a statistical anomaly.

However, Bracewell has thrown stats like these out into the public domain before and they've proven to be slightly unreliable.

Before the first test against Australia, Bracewell claimed Australia had won only 33 per cent of tests that had carried into the fifth day. The statistic had the preview writers in a lather (until somebody worked out it was palpably untrue), and it became somewhat academic when New Zealand was rolled on day four.

Bracewell appears to be on a firmer footing with this one.

"The stats say there's been a 40 per cent increase in the team winning the toss winning the match," he told the Herald on Sunday.

Is he right?

By taking into account the matches played since July, when the rules were first introduced, and the same amount of games prior to the new rules, we get an indication.

There have been 38 completed one-day internationals. Of those completed matches, 25 times the team winning the toss has won the match. That's 66 per cent.

In the 38 ODIs played immediately before the new rules were introduced, the team winning the toss won just 18, under 50 per cent.

Whether Bracewell's statistical assertion has credence, one thing is clear - the toss is paramount.

"It's become 12 versus 11. I would rather have it 11 versus 11, or at worst, 12 versus 12," the Black Caps coach said.

Ironically, the rules were brought in because one-day cricket was becoming tired and predictable. Few would have guessed that the rules would make the game slightly less tired but altogether more predictable.

Aside from New Zealand's opposition, the rules have received mixed reviews, with most confusion surrounding the use of the super sub.

Teams have to name their designated sub before the toss is made, therefore are selecting with the assumption that you will get your preferred wish as to whether you bat or bowl.

Put simply, if you wish to bat first, you're more likely to name a bowler as 12th man so you stack your batting side for the first innings. If you wish to bowl, you play a full bowling side with a batsman as your sub.

The other option is to play an allrounder but there are good reasons why Bracewell is reluctant to do this.

"In our case, our best three allrounders [Cairns, Scott Styris and Jacob Oram], when they're in form, would be playing. Why have them only involved in half the match," he said. Fleming, on the other hand, believes the only way to make up lost ground if you lose the toss is to have an allrounder as 12th man.

New Zealand tried to use the tri-series in Zimbabwe, also involving India, to work out how to best play with the new rules. Although they won that tournament, the tactics needed remained inconclusive. In South Africa they were hamstrung by the fact Fleming lost every toss bar one.

Bracewell said Australia have taken the attitude of "We'll go in with a full bowling side. If the toss falls our way, we'll use a substitute".

If Australia wins the toss they generally replace Glenn McGrath with a batsman.

"England did the same thing in a country where winning is very reliant on winning the toss. They used Vikram Solanki as a specialist right through that [NatWest Challenge] series."

If the ICC continues its experimental rules beyond the review period, they might have to look at ways of determining that both sides get a share of choosing what to do during a series.

That could come in the form of tossing for match one of a series and then alternating the choice.

Alternatively they could just dump the super sub or, more logically, let the teams announce it after the toss.

Whatever way you slice it, though, New Zealand will need to find some way of adjusting to the new rules when Australia arrives and the series begins on Saturday.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY