KEY POINTS:
A desire to give star wicketkeeper-batsman Brendon McCullum a reduced workload could see the surprise inclusion of Otago keeper Gareth Hopkins in the New Zealand Cricket contract list.
The contracts are due to be announced later this week but the Herald on Sunday understands the selectors have concerns over the amount of cricket McCullum, who plays virtually every match for the Black Caps in all forms of the game, has been asked to shoulder.
There were signs McCullum was showing wear and tear at the World Cup, where he didn't have the impact expected, particularly with the bat.
Hopkins is the obvious choice to back up McCullum. The 30-year-old has compiled an impressive first-class record, securing 267 dismissals and scoring close to 4000 runs at an average of 30.7. More importantly, his stats have continued upwards, to the point where he scored 514 runs last season at a staggering average of 85.66.
Another feature of the list is the likely return of Craig McMillan, who picked up a contract last season only after Nathan Astle retired, having been controversially left out of the initial 20.
Logic dictates, too, that the likes of Mathew Sinclair, Daryl Tuffey, James Marshall, Andre Adams and Craig Cumming, who all played a bit-part last season, will miss out.
The axing will be particularly tough on Sinclair. He was brought back on the back of a prolific State Championship season, only to be part of a programme of just two tests. He scored 83 runs in two tests against Sri Lanka, a series where virtually every batsman struggled against the wiles of Murali and the pace of Lasith Malinga.
It seems likely he will miss out to Jamie How, a player with a far less distinguished start to his international career but whom the selectors view as a genuine prospect in both forms of the game, whereas Sinclair is labelled a test player only.
Providing cold comfort for Sinclair is that the new transitional payment system will kick in - giving him one month's extra pay ($4000) from his $48,000 retainer, which will be split over two months until the major association contracts are handed out.
Cumming has done nothing wrong either, contributing runs in the tests against Sri Lanka, but he is also not seen as a one-day option. He is close to 32 and the selectors are more likely to look at Michael Papps and How as long-term test opening options ahead of the Otago captain.
Tuffey, should he miss out, might have cause for grief. After bravely overcoming a potentially career-ending injury, he was done no favours when picked inexplicably early in his comeback for the World Cup. It ended in predictable circumstances and Tuffey looks set to suffer for it.
Elsewhere, it looks a relatively simple job for the selectors. Shane Bond, Daniel Vettori, Stephen Fleming, Scott Styris, Jacob Oram and McCullum will command the top six retainers - which range from $128,000 to $103,000 - although not necessarily in that order.
James Franklin, Kyle Mills, Peter Fulton, Ross Taylor, Chris Martin, McMillan, Papps and Jeetan Patel will be certainties for contracts, while it seems likely Michael Mason and Mark Gillespie will be viewed as the seamers most likely to contribute in 2007-08.
Hamish Marshall is a perennial contractee and will almost certainly hold one again.
Lou Vincent, after flirting with a stint in South Australia, will take his place on the list, though he clearly has issues he needs to sort out with Black Caps management if he is to fulfil his massive potential.
Possible contracts list: 1 Shane Bond, 2 Stephen Fleming, 3 Dan Vettori, 4 Jacob Oram, 5 Scott Styris, 6 Brendon McCullum, 7 James Franklin, 8 Kyle Mills, 9 Peter Fulton, 10 Ross Taylor, 11 Lou Vincent, 12 Chris Martin, 13 Craig McMillan, 14 Hamish Marshall, 15 Michael Papps, 16 Jeetan Patel, 17 Mark Gillespie, 18 Michael Mason, 19 Jamie How, 20 Gareth Hopkins.
