KEY POINTS:
You'd be forgiven for doubting a sporting revolution is under way. March is test cricket time, the long hot summer has taken the juice out of the wicket and the first test against England is idling along on a benign pitch.
In the eye of a cricketing storm, it's eerily calm. But as rugby fans struggle to summon up enthusiasm for the Super 14 franchise competition, cricket may be heading down the same path - with franchise-based Twenty20 cricket consigning test and one-day internationals to the outer oval.
Even casual fans know there's a green tinge to the Black Caps. No Bond. No Astle. No McMillan. No Vincent. No Tuffey. No great loss, some will sneer. Andre Adams, the standout bowler of the domestic first-class season, is also missing.
They're furthering their careers - and fortunes - in India with the Indian Cricket League (ICL), one of two new franchise-based Twenty20 competitions.
The second ICL tournament gets under way tomorrow night.
Fit and in form, what a difference they would make to our test side, which has slipped to 7th among 8 competitive test-playing nations. But because the ICL does not have the International Cricket Council's blessing, those players are effectively banned from playing for their country.
Next month, New Zealand begins a tour of England without five more stars: Scott Styris (unavailable for all but one-day cricket), Stephen Fleming (retiring from international cricket), captain Daniel Vettori, vice-captain Brendon McCullum and world-class allrounder Jacob Oram.
The five are signed to the Indian Premier League, a rival Twenty20 competition which runs from April 19 to June 1 and which is ICC-sanctioned. Vettori, McCullum and Oram will rejoin the Black Caps in England - just when remains subject to negotiation - but starting a prestigious tour without your captain, vice-captain and leading allrounder is farcical. Fleming and Styris would also have made the tour were it not for the IPL.
Never mind, smell the cash. Both IPL and ICL contracted players will earn undreamed of salaries for playing cricket in its most truncated form. At the Bollywood-style IPL player auction last month, Brendon McCullum fetched US$700,000; Oram $675,000 and Vettori $625,000. With prizemoney, some could earn above $1.5 million for 14 round-robin games and a possible semi-final and final. Next year, more top players - Kyle Mills, Ross Taylor and Jamie How are obvious candidates - could be weighing loyalty to province and country against a wheelbarrow of Indian rupees.
New Zealand Cricket has responded by enforcing the ICC ban on players signed to ICL and by boosting the salaries of its 92 paid players by 40 per cent, courtesy of a $50 million sponsorship deal signed last year with India's Sony Entertainment. They may have to go even further to retain top pros such as Mills.
More threatens New Zealand cricket's credibility than the player exodus to the Indian leagues - listen to talkback radio or read the cricketing media and the ailments include the player management skills of coach John Bracewell, revolving-door selections, the academy system, the mental fragility of our batsmen and the physical fragility of our bowlers. But the ICL-IPL power struggle threatens to make all those concerns redundant.
While England and Australia are sufficiently rich to keep their players at home, New Zealand and the West Indies can't hope to match the sums bandied about by the Indians.
Billionaire investors are bankrolling the Indian leagues and the gamble could end in tears. Many doubt that Indian fans will develop the same fervour for city-based franchises laden with international mercenaries that they have for the national team.
BUT the franchise concept is poised to sweep the cricketing world as broadcasters and sponsors eye the popularity of the Twenty20 game. All over in 3 hours, the slogfest and associated hoopla have attracted a new breed of fan - generally younger, and not overwhelmingly male. A highly-successful Twenty20 World Cup in South Africa last year heightened the market interest.
New Zealand Cricket boss Justin Vaughan says New Zealand is too small to support a big-money league, but one or two NZ franchises could join an Australasian tournament. "We have had some preliminary discussions with Cricket Australia. The potential for a transtasman or even a Southeast Asian competition with teams based in Singapore or Hong Kong is significant."
Vaughan goes further. "Twenty20 is the growth vehicle for the game. The audiences like it, it's a great way for kids to get a good taste of the game.
"There's a great opportunity at the grassroots level to really reinvigorate the game and broaden the participant base.
"There's also the potential to hold people in the game for longer - for people with careers and families, [full-day and weekend-long] club cricket is not particularly attractive at times."
What might this mean for how the traditional game is played? How will youngsters brought up on a diet of Twenty20 cricket develop the greater array of skills needed for four-day domestic cricket and five-day tests? Many argue the fans have already voted with their feet; the game needs to change to meet public demand.
Until the Indian leagues came along, smash-and-bash cricket was dismissed as a garish hybrid to be used sparingly - a couple of games to whet fans' appetites at the start of a tour. Suddenly, it threatens one-day (50-over) cricket's role as the sport's money-spinner. Conceivably, cricket could go the way of sports like soccer and, increasingly, rugby - dominated by club/franchise competitions with few opportunities for meaningful international competition outside a world cup every four years. The Indian leagues could wrest power away from the ICC and leave it with the players. Or they could go belly-up. It all hinges on how Indian fans embrace the rival leagues playing in the dustbowls of Mohali, Mumbai and Jaipur.
ICL's top stars _ including Bond, Brian Lara and Inzamam ul Haq - are contracted for a reported $1 million a year for three years. The eight IPL franchises - with names like Bangalore Royal Challengers and Delhi Daredevils - were sold for between NZ$80 million and NZ$135 million to mainly Indian billionaire entrepreneurs and Bollywood stars.
Sony Entertainment paid US$1.2 billion for the TV rights for 10 years while Indian real estate developer DLF paid more than US$50 million for the tournament title rights.
With such money at stake, there's widespread scepticism that the ICC will be able to hold the Indian tiger by the tail and confine IPL to a six-week annual playing window.
New Zealand Players Association executive manager Heath Mills notes that IPL has the stated goal of becoming cricket's financial equivalent of football's English Premier League or basketball's NBA. "The only way they can do that is to have the best players together for longer than six weeks.
"I'm not sure the boards have stood up and really challenged India on where this is going to take cricket long term."
He says the critical point will come in three years when the ICC calendar is renegotiated and the Indian board seeks to carve out a window for IPL. Many believe the window will have to expand if the franchises are to break even. IPL could become the predominant employer for players "and whoever becomes the predominant employer will be the one pulling the strings".
Vaughan is more hopeful : "There's some hint that they want to expand the number of teams but you can still imagine formats which enable it to be confined to six weeks."
IPL was ushered in by the Indian cricket board (BCCI) as a counter to ICL, the so-called rebel league started by India's Zee TV empire in frustration after years of losing out on TV rights to cover the national side. The ICC hopes that the ICL model, with its mostly has-been stars, will collapse in the face of IPL and the ICC player ban but ICL is showing no signs of drawing stumps.
Its latest tournament has expanded to eight teams with new signings including New Zealanders Adams and Vincent and a clutch of Pakistani fringe internationals.
Mills is one who doubts ICL will die without a fight. "India has an insatiable appetite for cricket. I can see it hanging around. Even if it doesn't, what's to stop someone else coming along?"
It's also a matter of time before ICL players bring a restraint of trade case against boards which have barred them from international and domestic cricket. "The most successful sporting competitions in the world are those that have the best players," says Mills. "At the moment, the best players in the world aren't playing international cricket."
As the ICC attempts to keep the game's leading stars from the rebel league, the great unknown is whether the BCCI's version can be harnessed to work for the good of world cricket, not just India. The BCCI is in a powerful position - broadcasting revenues from the sub-continent prop up international cricket and within the ICC there is an ongoing power struggle between India and traditional powers England and Australia.
IPL chairman Lalit Modi knows it. Responding to accusations that India was using its fearsome economic clout to boss the cricketing world around, Modi told the Daily Telegraph: "India has been subservient for 100 years. People are used to dictating terms to us. We're just evening the playing field. And if it's our turn to have some glory, so much the better."
While Mills is worried, he's adamant the entry of private investment is a good problem to have. "Most sports in New Zealand would cry out for people to invest in their sport.
"The critical thing is how we manage it. At the moment I don't think the powers that be are making a good fist of it.
"From a New Zealand perspective, it's critical that New Zealand Cricket has a stake in whatever structures emerge to ensure the revenues are there to fund the game."
DOMESTIC CRICKET PUSHED FURTHER DOWN THE ORDER
Something will have to give if Twenty20 competitions are to be squeezed into the packed international cricket calendar.
Worst case scenario: Franchise-based Twenty20 cricket spreads throughout the cricketing world, squeezing out one-day (50-over) internationals and domestic/development cricket.
For the cricket powerhouses - England, Australia, India, Pakistian and South Africa - test and one-day series against New Zealand already struggle to attract fans, and consequently broadcasting and sponsorship revenue. Franchise cricket raises the prospect that cricketing superpowers will only be interested in playing each other; New Zealand - unless it improves its competitiveness - could struggle to get games against the glamour sides. Income would flow from the game, threatening domestic competitions. Aspiring youngsters might go straight to the franchises.
Players earning a million dollars or more for 45 days' work may struggle to get excited about playing domestic cricket in New Zealand -but our first-class cricket sorely needs the best players taking part.
New Zealand Cricket prefers the optimistic scenario: the Indian Cricket League collapses, the Indian Premier League remains as an annual six-week moneyspinner for top players and NZ franchises take part in a regional Twenty20 competition.
A third scenario has both ICL and IPL falling short of investors' expectations, but - as with Kerry Packer's rebel World Series Cricket league 30 years ago - the global cricketing landscape is forever changed.
WHO'S GOING WHERE?
The lure of Indian rupees is the obvious reason for the decimation of the national side - but case-by-case analysis reveals push factors as well, including revolving-door selection policies, age, injury and friction with coach John Bracewell.
ICL CONTRACTED
Shane Bond: Joined ICL in the belief his contract allowed him to. When he was told otherwise - after an ICC edict to national boards - he felt honour-bound to proceed. Injury prone and in his 30s, it's his chance to secure his family's financial future. Was planning to opt out of test cricket anyway
Nathan Astle: Oddly retired before last year's World Cup, midway through a one-day series, citing loss of enthusiasm. But miffed at his treatment by selectors including Bracewell.
Craig McMillan: Cited health reasons and age in retiring last year - just before signing with ICL. Had become a selectors' plaything after indifferent form but returned brilliantly last summer. Now captains Kolkata Tigers.
Lou Vincent: Mercurial talent in one-day and test matches treated with disdain by selectors. Broke his contract to sign with ICL last month.
Andre Adams: Gamebreaker, but form wavered and fell out with John Bracewell. Became a bystander before being dropped for World Cup in West Indies on pitches tailor-made for him. Was standout domestic bowler pre-Christmas but not picked.
Daryl Tuffey: Another injury-plagued yo-yo called back into the squad for the World Cup at Adams' expense before getting injured.
Chris Cairns: Retired before World Cup. Was it age alone that sent the injury-prone allrounder packing?
IPL CONTRACTED
Stephen Fleming: Retired from one-dayers after World Cup to extend career in test matches, only to be dropped as test captain. Then along came an Indian summer. Will finish test career in 3rd test against England.
Scott Styris: Outstanding allrounder at 2007 World Cup, dropped from the test team after NZ was annihilated in South Africa. Decided to retire from tests claiming his body was shot. Some argue he might have tried fitness training.
Brendon McCullum: Current star who has secured financial future with IPCL despite clash with Black Caps tour of England.
Jacob Oram: Ditto.
Daniel Vettori: Ditto.
