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When England's cricketers gather around a crate or two of specially imported Tetley's Bitter to see in the new year, a couplet from Auld Lang Syne might resonate louder than usual:"Should auld acquaintance be forgot and never brought to mind?"
By the last day of 2006, England will be four tests into their first Ashes defence since 1989 and, if most judges are to be believed, will be preparing to bid farewell to The Urn.
If that turns out to be the case - and don't forget, England were similarly written off before last year's epic series - an auld acquaintance might be the principal reason behind it.
Troy Cooley will never feature in any Ashes highlights video but 'the king of (reverse) swing' was credited with tutoring England's successful pace quartet to staggering results against Australia's vaunted line-up.
The Australian has now returned home and is plotting England's downfall with the likes of Glenn McGrath (like he needed any help), Brett Lee and tyro Mitchell Johnson.
But it is his work with Steve Harmison,Andrew Flintoff, Matthew Hoggard and Simon Jones that will define his legacy.
England's pace quartet were unstintingly accurate and penetrative in English conditions, particularly Jones when the ball was old.
Cooley was revealed as the mastermind behind England's pace renaissance, taming the once-erratic Flintoff, Harmison and Jones and getting them to bowl in the right places at the right times.
England captain Flintoff won't have the luxury of calling on injured Welshman Jones. Assuming England go in to the first test with a battery of four again, it is highly likely the slippery quick but inaccurate Sajid Mahmood will take his place.
Australia will be rubbing their hands together at the prospect of an erratic Ashes baby first up on their favourite track at the Gabba. Certainly Mahmood's 1 for 97 off nine overs in England's disastrous first-up match against a Prime Minister's XI at Canberra did not augur well.
Flintoff was a picture of measured confidence this week as the vultures began circling.
"A lot of the lads haven't played in Australia and I've not played a test here apart from the Super Series," he said. "But on the other side of that, the lads haven't been to Australia and played in defeats before - they're not scarred by previous defeats."
A few Australian batsmen were scarred by England's bowling 16 months ago. Ricky Ponting was quite literally scarred by 'Grievous Bodily' Harmison in the first test, wearing his stitches across his cheek for the rest of the series, compiling 359 runs at 39.88, including a match-saving, epic 156 at Old Trafford in the third test. Only Justin Langer scored and averaged more (394 at 43.77). For the rest, the scarring was mental.
Matthew Hayden will open again this summer but fresh in his mind will be his struggles in the Northern Hemisphere. It took him until the final test to become comfortable with Hoggard's swing and his series scorecard of 318 runs at 35.33 was inflated by his 138 at The Oval.
Michael Clarke (335 at 37.22) and Simon Katich (248 at 27.55) can trace the stagnation of their careers to the Ashes and both are in a four-way battle with Andrew Symonds and Shane Watson for the No 6 role in the first test. Katich would be at long odds to get the nod.
Damien Martyn's career looked buried by the Ashes (178 at 19.77) but he has since proved it was an aberration, batting superbly in South Africa after winning a recall. He will probably start at the Gabba and has the most to prove.
His statistics last year were awful but he attracted unplayable balls and was at least twice the victim of umpiring blunders. Judging by his baseless criticism of Dennis Lillee - as if he hasn't earned the right to pass comment on matters cricketing - for saying Australia was too old, Martyn is an angry man on a mission.
But you suspect the biggest battle for England's bowlers will be to dismiss captain Ponting. Since the final ball was bowled at The Oval, Ponting has strung together a scarcely believable string of scores. In his 12 tests since, he has amassed 1483 runs at 78.1.
That includes eight centuries - Stephen Fleming has a career total of nine - and Ponting has raised his average from 55.37 to 58.23. If he's not the best batsman in the world right now, who is?
England's attack shared him around, with Harmison, Jones and Flintoff each snaring him twice, Hoggard once and even Ashley Giles (more on him shortly) got him.
With no Jones, that puts the onus on Harmison and Flintoff to strike early but here England has potentially its biggest problem. Last week, coach Duncan Fletcher signalled Flintoff might have a limited role with the ball in this series.
Flintoff had surgery on his ankle in July and Fletcher doubts he can bowl long spells, something he has become famous for. "If we were confident of him getting through a lot of overs, we could probably look at playing four bowlers," Fletcher said. "But with Flintoff not bowling many, we've got to go in with five."
For those who remember fondly Flintoff's dismantling of the dangerous Adam Gilchrist with his round-the-wicket tactic, that news is close to disastrous. England will already feel some trepidation about how their 'into-the-wicket' attack will fare on Australia's rock-hard tracks. Where in England the up-and-down nature of the pitches meant it was hard to play back with any confidence, Harmison and Flintoff might find less joy when Australia's back-foot players start leaving the ball on a length.
The other thing you need in Australia is a good spinner. It has haunted England in the past and they have often gone to great lengths and, in the case of Eddie Hemmings, extraordinary breadths, to find a diamond in the rough patch.
England this time has one, or the makings of one... but probably won't play him.
Monty Panesar has won over nearly every pundit with his flight and guile but has failed to convince Fletcher that he is the real deal. Fletcher hates his fielding, hates his batting and probably hates the thought of the Australian crowds wearing him down.
So the general feeling is that Fletcher will revert to default setting and pick the innocuous Giles, or the Wheelie Bin as he is sometimes referred to without affection.
Giles will take a few catches in the gully and score some handy lower order runs in between inducing yawns with his over-the-wicket, flat-trajectory, leg-sided darts.
That could cost England. They need to take 20 wickets on foreign soil. Without Jones, that task was made harder and without a fully fit Flintoff, the task magnifies.
And without Cooley's guiding hand, it might be near impossible.
