Cricket: Ashes to Ashes

Cardiff - it has given the world such joys as coal, Shakin' Stevens and Human Traffic, the definitive pill-popping film for Generation X-stasy.

But this week, it will be the axis upon which the cricket world spins.

Sophia Gardens, or if you prefer its official, less lyrical name, SWALEC Stadium, is an unusual choice for the first of five Ashes tests. For a start, it is in Wales - and England, despite representing the England and Wales Cricket Board, do not have a single Welshman among their ranks this year. Also, it has a reputation this season as a plodding wicket that takes slow turn, playing away from England's expected advantage in the seam bowling department.

But for the time being, that is the concern of the combatants and critics only. What every cricket fan around the planet is hoping for is that Cardiff will provide the prologue to a series to equal 2005 for its drama and intensity.

It is near inconceivable that it could come close to matching '05, which culminated in Kevin Pietersen's audacious last-day century that saved a test England was in danger of losing and won the home side the Ashes for the first time since they handed them over in 1989.

But The Oval was just the last in a staggering series of matches that had viewers on this side of the world using matchsticks to prop eyelids open.

To recap:

* Australia won easily at Lord's paving the way for what many suspected would be another brutally one-sided affair.

* England fought back with a thrilling two-run victory at Edgbaston, with Michael Kasprowicz unluckily dismissed caught behind off a free' hand following an amazing last wicket stand of 59 with Brett Lee.

* Australia, thanks to Ricky Ponting's second innings 156, clawed their way to a draw at Old Trafford, the last pair at the crease when stumps were drawn in Manchester's stygian gloom.

* England forced Australia to follow on at Trent Bridge, got Ponting all riled up by running him out with a substitute fielder, then almost choked chasing 129, before winning by three wickets.

That series had a core cast of performers - including Shane Warne, Michael Vaughan, Glenn McGrath and Marcus Trescothick - who will all be absent this time around.

That alone should be enough to suggest '09 will pale in comparison to '05.

But where there's life... and Flintoff and Ponting, there's hope.

Cardiff, of all places, could reveal all - who would have thought?

THE ASHES

July 8-July 12
1st Test, Sophia Gardens, Cardiff

July 16-July 20
2nd Test, Lord's, London

July 30-August 3
3rd Test, Edgbaston, Birmingham

August 7-August 11
4th Test, Headingley, Leeds

August 20-August 24
5th Test, The Oval, London

THREE STRIKES

Why England will win:

* Because they are at home and will be buoyed by passionate supporters who all remember 2005 as if it was yesterday (conveniently forgetting the pants-down hiding they received in Australia in 2006-07). When England get on a roll at home they can be difficult to stop, as New Zealand can testify to last year.

* Because there is no Warne and McGrath, or Gillespie and Kasprowicz for that matter … and a fairly ordinary bowler seems to be inhabiting the body of the once-excellent Brett Lee.

* Because they have an attack that can swing the ball when it is new and, more importantly, when it is old. Australia's Achilles heel is their batsmen's lack of footwork when the ball is moving. England even face the pleasant dilemma of who to leave out of the seam-bowling line-up, with Andrew Flintoff, James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Ryan Sidebottom and Steve Harmison all fighting for places.

Why Australia will win:

* Because they are a better side … but only just. If this comes down to a straight talent shoot-out, Australia will win by a short head.

* Because Ricky Ponting is twice the skipper he was in 2005 when he had to do nothing except score runs and throw the ball to Warne. Getting his young team across the line in South Africa recently was one of the more under-rated achievements in recent cricket history.

* Because it's what Australia tends to do. This might be one of the most storied sporting match-ups but much like the Yankees (26 titles) versus the Red Sox (seven), or Real Madrid (31 league titles, nine European Cups) versus Barcelona (19 and three), it's dominated by one side. Australia have won 121 Ashes tests to England's 95, with 84 draws. Post-World War II, those results have been even more lopsided.