By Richard Boock
Needless to say, when it comes to the question of the next New Zealand cricket coach, predicting who won't get the job has become a lot simpler than predicting who will.
For instance, it won't be Geoff Howarth, of that we can be fairly certain. And unless New Zealand Cricket boss Chris Doig enjoys the suggestion that he has "more faces than Big Ben," Glenn Turner seems a distinctly iffy proposition as well.
In fact, given the recent history of the job - the controversies, the casualties and, not least, the results - there could well be more people lining up to avoid it than to apply for it.
NZC as well, will probably be eyeing the whole scene with a fair amount of trepidation, seeing as it usually ends up sacking its coaches for the same reason for which they appoint them.
They started the trend with Warren Lees, who was recognised for his earthy, family-oriented coaching style in 1990, and dumped for returning home to his wife and children during the bomb-stricken tour of Sri Lanka in 1992.
Howarth, not exactly a stranger to the hospitality industry, was appointed in his place, and only a couple of tours later axed for his lack of organisation.
By that stage NZC decided it needed the discipline and no-nonsense attitude of Turner. A year later it let him go. Far too rigid and inflexible, apparently.
So with this in mind, it did not seem a complete overstatement during the week when Doig conceded that the successful applicant would probably be chosen from a very small pool of contenders.
None of the New Zealand-based hopefuls are expected to be offered the job, despite the impressive domestic achievements of Chris Kuggeleijn, Denis Abherhart and Dipak Patel, and the experience of Lees and Auckland coach David Trist.
Of this group, Patel represents an interesting option after steering Central Districts to the Shell Trophy title during the summer, while Lees' wafer-thin chances of a recall could be boosted if the quality of overseas applications proves unsatisfactory.
Off-shore, the options are split between the small collection of non-New Zealand coaches with the credentials and inclination to shift to Christchurch, and those Kiwi coaches living and working in Britain.
In the latter category, John Bracewell effectively ruled himself out after extending his contract with Gloucestershire, but his old New Zealand team-mate John Wright - at present with Kent - appears to be reconsidering the notion.
Wright was in New Zealand for the recent series against South Africa, and although he initially played down suggestions that he might be interested in the role, by the time he was due to return to England he was far more equivocal about the matter.
The 44-year-old former test opening batsman guided Kent to second place on the county championship table in 1997 before the side slipped to 11th place last season, and impresses as a coach who - while possessing an easy-going and laid-back sort of manner - has a knack of wringing the most out of his team.
No great sense of adventure was apparent on the 14 occasions Wright captained New Zealand (three were won, three were lost and eight drawn), but his experience over an 82-test career left him with a keen appreciation of how to succeed as an underdog.
This, perhaps more than any other virtue, makes him an attractive proposition to replace Steve Rixon when the test series against England ends in August.
Rixon played for and later coached a team who were more often than not successful, and subsequently discovered that life with the Kiwi test team was a far more difficult assignment.
Wright, on the other hand, has never forgotten.
Cricket: And the new NZ coach is...
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