KEY POINTS:
Trying to second-guess coach John Bracewell these days is about as pleasant as undergoing a root-canal operation - only with a much smaller chance of success.
But if the day arrived when you were forced to either gamble on his next move or smear yourself with honey and
lie on an ant hill, the chances are that you'd take a chance and pencil in Auckland batsman Lou Vincent for the World Cup.
There are several good reasons for this, not least the fact that the incumbent New Zealand openers - Stephen Fleming and Nathan Astle - appear to be struggling to see the ball, and experimental opener Brendon McCullum has already been sent back to the lower order.
It's true, Bracewell has insisted that McCullum could still be reinstated into the opening role, but it's hard to take that comment seriously, given the lack of time left before the cup, and the destabilising influence of his changes so far.
Just to recap: Fleming was rested for three games and is playing like it; Astle's struggling after a period in which he was first axed and then brought back as a No 3, and Daniel Vettori's lost all batting form after being used at No 5.
The question now being raised is, what opening contingencies will Bracewell carry to the Caribbean to have options available should the present duo continue to bat as if they were introduced to the game last weekend?
And the logical answer would seem to be Vincent - the only problem being that logic hasn't played a massive part in the selection process to date.
To be fair to Bracewell, until the past couple of weeks Vincent hasn't exactly offered a riveting case for a recall, suffering a dreadful run in the Champions Trophy and an equally appalling start to the domestic State Shield. His problem revolved around a defective forward defensive shot which resulted in his being bowled neck and crop in four of his most recent five ODI innings, leading to his axing from the squad that played Sri Lanka, and then the tri-series.
Many batsman get themselves into bother playing particular shots, such as the cut, the hook, the cover-drive, or the sweep - and have opted to simply eliminate the troublesome stroke so they can live to fight another day.
The complication for Vincent was that he couldn't exactly shelve his forward defensive and hope the opposition bowlers wouldn't notice.
But the good news for the happy-go-lucky 28-year-old is that he seems to have pulled himself out of the mire at precisely the right time, stringing together some useful scores in the State Shield to prove his worth at the top of the order.
Apart from the 48 against Wellington early in the month, he struck a 129 against Canterbury last week and followed that up with 51 against Northern Districts; scores that will surely bring him back into the frame for the upcoming Chappell-Hadlee series, and the World Cup.
The other advantage is that he can keep wickets if required, which might just tip the balance in his favour, given the relative isolation of this year's tournament, and the timing difficulties in terms of summoning replacements.
And it would be a surprise if Bracewell does not secretly harbour concerns over the future of Astle, who appears to have lost a little of the hand-eye co-ordination that made him such a magnificent stroke-maker in years gone by.
In his most recent seven ODIs, Astle has made four ducks and a 1, with his only meaningful scores being 83 against Sri Lanka at Napier, and 45 against England at Hobart. On six of those occasions, he's either been bowled or caught behind.
Astle should go to the West Indies, if only because his 16 ODI centuries and average of 34.92 mark him as a dangerous opponent when in form. Vincent should start packing his gear for the tropics too.
But you wouldn't want to bet your teeth on it.
