Conditions should suit seamers in Dunedin this week, although don't expect it to be a fast pitch. It may turn, but it will turn slowly.
Thus our four bowlers likely to have the most influence should be our frontline seamers and we only have four of them, so they all play.
Daryl Tuffey, Shane Bond, Iain O'Brien and Chris Martin make up the bottom four in my test order. They've an average age of 33. They are also the best, so what is going on with the development of seamers in this country?
Maybe young Tim Southee could see himself unlucky here, but Tuffey by all accounts was the pick of the first-class bowlers last season and that may have been enough to see him in over Southee. O'Brien and Martin are our test specialists and deserve the right to show it, while Bond simply must play if he is fit enough.
If you subscribe to the theory that three can do the same job as four, then Elliot could be used as number four and an extra batman selected, but this should be a result game and out-bowling Pakistan should be the goal. Given our rather geriatric attack, four may be essential given that shorter spells may be necessary.
Above the quicks comes my wicketkeeper, no guessing who that is, and then we move into the top six. Tim McIntosh and Martin Guptill open. They are, after all, the incumbents.
Ross Taylor is our undisputed man at four, but the key question is who bats either side of him at three and five.
Daniel Flynn batted three in Sri Lanka and, with his gritty style, New Zealand cricket want him in the top three. He has had defensive issues around his off stump and until these are long gone, I'd like to protect him at five.
However, with Jesse Ryder waiting to stroll back into that spot, for the good of his future, Flynn must play at three.
I dislike bringing in a batsman and then not playing him, especially one as in-form as Peter Fulton right now. He has been batting very well at three for Canterbury.
But with Elliot in the squad and distinguishing himself as an intelligent performer in ODIs, I'd like to see him given an extended go to do the same as a test batsman.
Forget viewing him as a test all-rounder. His bowling is simply not penetrative enough and thus he must be seen in test cricket as a batting specialist. He's my number five.
So that leaves Flynn and Fulton playing off for three and, in the interest of looking long-term, and with this being the first test of the season, I'm plumping for Flynn. However, his honeymoon is over and he should feel Fulton breathing down his neck in this series.
Of course, Daniel Vettori makes six. Our best test batsman in this team, is most likely to make his biggest contribution in this test with the bat, so he plays as a batsman, simple as that.
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