KEY POINTS:
It will take courage but if the Gabba pitch plays true to form then the Black Caps must bowl first this Thursday.
Perth was once the domain of the fast bowler with pace and bounce at the WACA but now the Gabba is regarded as the fastest pitch in Australia. The locals have indicated as much by naming allrounder Shane Watson, even with the re-inclusion of Andrew Symonds. This suggests they intend playing the four front-line seamers and Symonds.
Barring injury, the Black Caps will field the same team as played New South Wales with Daniel Vettori batting at seven to make room for four seamers including Tim Southee.
It's encouraging to see Southee in the frame because the safe decision may have been to replace Jacob Oram with Grant Elliot. Playing the extra seamer is a show of aggression.
The next show of aggression should be to take the game by the scruff of the neck on day one _ and that means bowling first. By playing Southee, the Black Caps have placed the emphasis on replacing Oram's bowling. If that is the intention, then give the bowlers the best possible chance of making an impact.
The Gabba pitch is close to perfect in that it provides movement on the first morning, flattens out and then turns a little on day five. That is, of course, if it is true to form.
Last time the Black Caps played a test in Brisbane, the pitch was unusually dry, cracked on day one and got very variable come day four. That was an aberration. More often than not, day one is swing bowling territory and there exists the chance to take wickets early.
While Vettori outclasses any spinner Australia can play, I feel on this ground the best time for the Black Cap attack to make an impression is on day one.
Southee, Kyle Mills, and Chris Martin are swing bowlers and Ian O'Brien will get seam movement in the right conditions. Unless rain is forecast those conditions will only exist on day one.Then pray.
It's a gamble bowling first in Australia. Nasser Hussain asked Australia to bat first on the greenish looking Gabba only for the locals to pound out 600 plus. In 2001, the Aussies were 200 without loss against the Black Caps although with the correct help from the umpire, they should have been one down for none.
It's a venue at which the touring captain would like to lose the toss because invariably the locals bat first although with their changes I'm not going to stake my reputation on that.
If Vettori calls correctly, it will take courage and a gambling streak to ask the Aussies to bat. In 2004 we adopted a conservative game plan and got soundly beaten.
