KEY POINTS:
There hasn't been much between New Zealand and the touring West Indians so far but I'm expecting the Black Caps to pull away over the remainder of the one-day series.
The West Indies rely too heavily on Chris Gayle and I don't think they will get runs consistently enough to win the series.
Gayle is an awesome striker of the ball, one of the best I've seen for some time. But he also looks like a one-pace hitter. Unless you mix your pace and method of delivery he will get into a rhythm and is world class. But if you keep mixing it up and don't bowl him two balls the same it makes him work a lot harder. Daniel Vettori has quickly worked this out despite Gayle getting the better of him in the one-over blast at Eden Park. On his day, Gayle will still hurt you but he is unlikely to do it continually over the next two weeks if the bowlers follow the plan marked out for them by their skipper.
Frankly, the West Indies look really thin and have obviously been in decline for a while. The past year hasn't been kind to them and they have been cleaned up by almost all of their opponents. Outside the minnows they are basically ranked last of the major nations.
While we have recently slipped to fifth, the Black Caps look to be in a different class for one-day cricket. I'm surprised we haven't put more distance on them yet during this tour, but it is not far away.
The West Indies have often relied on their ability rather than strategy, and this team isn't overly strategic either. The Black Caps should start to stamp their mark in Christchurch today.
Over the ditch, the walls have come tumbling down for Australia although it has been heading this way for some time.
Australia were hammered in India last year and their form at home over the past year or so has been very ordinary by their standards.
I think the true state of the Aussie game has been clouded over somewhat because there has still been greatness sprinkled through the team.
Ricky Ponting's form and performances such as those from Mitchell Johnson in this series have masked the true state of affairs. This decline is not totally unexpected. Take Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath, Justin Langer, Adam Gilchrist and Damien Martyn out of any team and you have lost a lot of great players - and I don't use the term "great" lightly. Those players are not going to be replaced - particularly Warne.
Australia has talked about the difficulty in finding a replacement for Warne. If Australia turn up another guy who gets 700 test wickets in my lifetime, they are doing pretty well.
As for South Africa, they are a really good team and have been consistent for five to 10 years. Kepler Wessels started it when they returned from isolation, introducing Jacques Kallis and Mark Boucher as the young guys among experienced players. The side has been gradually built around Kallis, Boucher and Makhaya Ntini with Graeme Smith coming along a bit later. There are layers of development which is why they are so consistent.
It is quite interesting to see the number of South African players who have played well in this series. They have eight or nine of them which is what Australia had in their prime. You don't see it too often.
South Africa at home to India would be a great series to watch right now. The power swing is tremendous for cricket, although I must say that it is with some sadness that I watch a fine player like Matthew Hayden in such a high-profile decline. It comes to us all at some stage but I doubt anyone takes much pleasure knowing that unless he makes runs at Sydney, his test career will be over.
