KEY POINTS:
Events of the past fortnight have reinforced the view that, far from being a one-horse contest, this World Cup is wide open.
And if I was an Australian selector right now, I'd be more than a bit nervous. It's not just three successive losses to England and last night's demolition by the Black Caps which raised eyebrows, it's the fact that just when they need to do some serious regrouping, they appear to have lost the plot. They've left two of the best players at home while they play their final lead-up series to the tournament here.
Their whole operation right now smacks of arrogance.
I suspect they expected to win the one-day finals in Australia 2-0, at which point all would have been sailing along pretty smoothly. Instead, it all went pear-shaped as England finally figured out how to play the 50-over game.
Australia announced before the finals were over that Ponting and Gilchrist would skip the New Zealand trip. I'll bet in both cases they're regretting that now.
The last time Australia lost three successive ODIs to one team was in June 2003 against the West Indies. Suddenly things are looking a bit shaky.
It's about time teams round the world stopped listening to the Australian commentators banging on about how wonderful Michael Clarke, Brad Hogg, Mitchell Johnson, Nathan Bracken and co are.
They are fine cricketers, but nothing like up to the level you'd think listening to the ridiculous pumping up they get from the commentary box.
Ponting is great; so too is Gilchrist. Glenn McGrath undoubtedly was, but is some way past his best.
Mike Hussey is a tremendous player and will possibly join that elite. But he is some way short of Michael Bevan, the player whose one-day role he has essentially taken over.
They have no spinner worthy of the name, Brett Lee and Andrew Symonds are injured and, in Symonds' case, in doubt for the World Cup.
Symonds is a dangerous player. He can be hot or cold, but is critical to Australia's chances. Winning the World Cup will be harder without Symonds than without either Ponting or Gilchrist.
Why? Because those two can be replaced by others not necessarily as good but who are pretty capable. Symonds fills two roles, rather like Chris Cairns did in the New Zealand side. When Cairns retired, it took out a third seamer and a No 6 batsman. Symonds is invaluable for Australia.
But break this Australian squad down and they are nowhere as formidable as either the 1999 or 2003 teams who won the World Cups in England and South Africa, respectively.
They were blessed with Steve and Mark Waugh, Shane Warne, Bevan and McGrath at his peak.
And that's why it's time teams stopped listening to the hype and played Australia for what they are - 11 pretty decent cricketers, not some all-conquering winning machine who need only step over the boundary rope to be halfway to victory.
