Five reasons why the New Zealand cricketers will win their series against England, which starts at Lords on Thursday night.
1) They have to. Cricket is on a roll, after the World Cup. Despite bombing in the final, sustained success - by our standards - has led to unprecedented interest in the sport. But the Black Caps aren't the All Blacks and the audience will drop off in droves if they lose in the wee hours. New Zealand cricket teams tend to operate in bubbles of obscurity around the world. But a World Cup on home territory helped the players connect with their public and feel the extent of the support. This time, they will know they are not alone.
2) New Zealand was tactically far more precise and energetic than England in the World Cup, and should remain so. The Kiwis will have to do without Keven Pietersen's helpful texts from the English dressing room because he remains on the outer. But Mike Hesson, Brendon McCullum and co. did their home work at the World Cup while England looked like a team still arguing about where to place the tea urn.
3) And England haven't even got a coach for now. The leading candidate - Aussie Jason Gillespie - isn't exactly jumping at the chance either. As Shane Warne will happily tell anyone, cricket coaches may be over-rated or counter-productive. But that doesn't mean they don't perform at least a few critical tasks.
4) Trent Boult and Tim Southee are not only an outstanding opening bowling combo, but are swing bowlers who should thrive in English conditions. The Duke ball, with a pronounced seam, is said to further favour swing. Stuart Broad and swing genius Jimmy Anderson are not a double act to be sneezed at - if they fire up then watch out. But McCullum's side can match or better them. It will be a fascinating comparison, and one New Zealand can win with the toss - as always - a vital factor.
