Richard Boock: Careers that depend on the health of Cairns

Put a ring around this. Chris Cairns won't be alone in holding his breath when the New Zealand selectors debate their squad for the upcoming one-dayers against Australia.

Apart from the legions of Cairns' supporters still enraged over his initial omission, several of his team-mates are also likely to be watching closely when John Bracewell and Co finalise the combination for next month's Chappell-Hadlee series.

Cairns was dropped after the tour of Zimbabwe because of concerns over his match fitness, and was informed that he needed to get more cricket under his belt if he wanted to continue to play at international level.

Since then, the New Zealand side have taken a dive in their one-day fortunes, but Cairns has worked overtime on the domestic front, participating in all Christchurch club fixtures and Canterbury trials, and in the Academy pre-season programme.

Chief executive Martin Snedden has lauded his work ethic and coach John Bracewell said this week that all reports had been positive and encouraging, suggesting a reassessment of his status before the next New Zealand squad was named.

Cairns proved his form this week with an unbeaten 118 off 101 balls for Canterbury against Central Districts and, as long as he can perform as effectively at the bowling crease, should be a shoo-in for the three-match Australian series.

That at least should be good news for Hamish Marshall and Brendon McCullum, who seemed set to face the biggest changes if Bracewell decided that Cairns was still not ready for international cricket, and opted to leave him on the sidelines.

As long as Cairns is picked, Marshall will almost certainly continue at No 4 and McCullum at No 7, meaning minimal changes from the squad taken to South Africa.

However, if the selectors decide to prolong Cairns' agony, both Marshall and McCullum could find themselves in a quickly changing situation as Bracewell attempts to make up for the absence of his two best all-rounders.

The New Zealand coach said this week that if both Oram and Cairns were deemed unavailable - as was the case in South Africa - he would then give more consideration to promoting McCullum, to create another bowling option lower down.

The problem with that scenario is that, with McCullum, Fleming, Astle and Vincent batting in the top four, Marshall would be forced down to No 5 or No 6, a position that demands a greater degree of strike-power.

More likely is Bracewell putting Craig McMillan in the position, on the basis that his boundary-hitting capabilities at No 5 or No 6 would be more effective than Marshall's.

That would mean lower-order practitioners such as Daniel Vettori, Andre Adams and Kyle Mills moving up a place to fill the vacancy left by McCullum, which in turn would create room in the tail for another specialist bowler - maybe a Chris Martin or a Jeetan Patel.

Martin was the form New Zealand A bowler in Sri Lanka last month and has been further assisted by the experimental supersub rule, which would allow New Zealand to bypass his rather ordinary batting skills and use him solely in the field.

Patel's ability to bowl dry off-spin late in the innings continues to interest the selectors, although he seemed to suffer from a loss of confidence in South Africa.

On the other hand, if Bracewell was to pick Cairns he would probably play Marshall at No 4 or No 3 and drop McMillan, who has never enjoyed batting higher than No 5.

Other contenders for the squad include Chris Harris and Daryl Tuffey, both returning from injury and unlikely to make the cut.

The outlook

* Scenario 1

Chris Cairns is recalled after proving his fitness to the selectors. He replaces the injured Jacob Oram in a 13-man squad that has no room for recent tourist Jeetan Patel. The top-order remains intact, despite the calamitous effort in South Africa, and reprieves are offered to Hamish Marshall and Craig McMillan. Franklin and McMillan appear likely supersub material.

1. Stephen Fleming 2. Nathan Astle 3. Lou Vincent 4. Hamish Marshall 5. Scott Styris 6. Chris Cairns 7. Brendon McCullum 8. Daniel Vettori 9. Andre Adams 10. Kyle Mills 11. Shane Bond 12. James Franklin 13. Craig McMillan.

* Scenario 2

Cairns and Oram are both deemed unavailable, leaving Bracewell without his two best all-rounders. He responds by switching McCullum to the top of the order, thereby creating room lower down for another bowling option, possibly paceman Chris Martin or second spinner Jeetan Patel.

McCullum's promotion puts the squeeze on Hamish Marshall, who finds himself in a head-to-head battle with McMillan. Twin brother James misses the cut completely.

1. Stephen Fleming 2. Nathan Astle 3. Lou Vincent 4. Brendon McCullum 5. Scott Styris 6. Craig McMillan 7. Daniel Vettori 8. Andre Adams 9. Kyle Mills 10. James Franklin 11. Shane Bond 12. Chris Martin 13. Hamish Marshall.