Paul Lewis: Black Caps must hang on to the big boys

It's difficult to avoid a sense of heavy pessimism at the clouds gathering over world cricket and, in particular, New Zealand cricket.

India's muscle-flexing, backed up by the millions of dollars they generate through broadcasting rights, means there's a new 600-pound gorilla on the block, if you'll pardon the mixed metaphors.

Although New Zealand Cricket boss Martin Snedden was at pains to keep separate India's postponement of their tour of New Zealand and India's new global power-broking, it is nevertheless impossible not to connect the two as harbingers of a new and not particularly palatable future.

Add to that the surprise retirement of Chris Cairns and the fact that there is no obvious successor to one of New Zealand cricket's greatest performers - I am sure Jacob Oram will allow that he does not yet begin to contest Cairns' achievements. New Zealand cricket fans could be forgiven for feeling that they may have already seen the headiest days of New Zealand cricket.

Snedden is right when he says the Indians have not yet sent world cricket to hell in a handcart and that they are staying within agreed ICC protocols until the end of that agreement in 2007. Then, they have said, they won't be playing in the Champions Trophy. Snedden is also right - he usually is - when he says there is a lot of lobbying to be done yet and that India's chest-thumping may not be the actual result when all the dust settles.

But, when you come right down to it, there is a new dynamic afoot in world cricket. Many have compared this to Kerry Packer's arrival - and the beneficial effect Packer's 'rebels' had on the grand old game.

Try as I may, I'm unable to see the benefits that might flow to New Zealand. India are clearly lining themselves up to play more games against the likes of England, Pakistan and Australia. The rest of the world may be consigned to a sort of international Division Two. Including us.

The implication is that the big boys may play more on their own. Which puts the ICC's Future Tours Programme under the microscope even more. While the immediate difference to New Zealand cricket may be minimal - we don't tour or have tours from India and Pakistan all that often anyway - the long-term aspect is a worry.

If England and Australia have their itineraries filled more by India - and they won't argue if they do as it will likely give them a bigger slice of the TV pie - what is left for New Zealand? Tours by Sri Lanka, the West Indies, Bangladesh and maybe South Africa.

Those countries are hardly stumblebums, even Bangladesh is coming on, and the manner of Sri Lanka's victory over Australia in the VB series last week showed that the divide between the big boys and the also-rans may not be as great as many think.

But we are dealing with elements that have nothing to do with pure cricket - like TV, money and power. That's the real point: the effect of all this on our premier summer game.

New Zealand cricket, some argue, receives a disproportionate amount of coverage in our media compared to interest. I have always disputed this as I believe cricket has a wide following, even if those interested do not always go to the games. That brings us back to the Cairns connection.

In the New Zealand team right now, he is an established world-class star - a crowd-puller and ratings-gatherer. Stephen Fleming, Daniel Vettori and Shane Bond are probably the only other world-class players - and two of those are approaching the end of their careers. Oram could possibly turn into the sort of crowd-pulling match-winner Cairns was, although it seems his bowling will never carry Cairns' threat and he seems beset by injury these days.

In other words, if the ICC find that India has slipped the reins, what has New Zealand cricket got to offer the new power-broker of the game or Australia and England that would persuade them to play us more? This is an enormous challenge for the ICC and Snedden.

If we are consigned to division two, cricket faces a long, slow struggle and possibly even a long, slow death in this country.

New Zealanders are not particularly patient when it comes to sport. We follow sports teams and sportspeople who perform at world level. We love our rugby, yes, but would we love it so much if we performed at the level of a Romania, for example?

Snedden and Black Caps coach John Bracewell have an enormously difficult road to travel. The first has to help keep India's muscle within reasonable bounds, politically and financially. The latter has to produce teams that help Snedden to do so - with results which proclaim New Zealand capable of footing it with the big boys and bringing in the bums-on-seats and TV crowds. He also has to bring on the new stars as fast as possible.

On the field, results begin to look even more important. New Zealand has to put the West Indies to the sword next month. We also have to produce the goods in the VB Series and at the World Cup next year.

If not, the wither-and-die scenario looms larger.

The West Indies are also badly placed. They have gone backwards to the extent that they have lost their status as a world power in the game and are thus also in danger of ending up hidden in the creases of India's vast wallet.

The series next month may be more than both sides playing to win. They may be playing to stay alive or, putting it another way, to please the power-brokers.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY