Chris Cairns: Black Caps will persist despite big obstacles

The events of last week's first test in Brisbane seriously undermined my ability as an analyst because my predictions were rather wide of the mark. Mind you, who could seriously have contemplated a Glenn McGrath 50?

This particular event was the straw that broke the camel's back. The Black Caps had to endure the calamitous 10th wicket partnership between Gillespie and McGrath, then lost Richardson in the first over as they prepared to knuckle down and bat for two days to deny Australia victory. That would have sent a sense of inevitability through the Black Caps team. Inevitability and vulnerability is a scent the Australians love to inhale. When an opposition is down, there is no better exponent of going in for the kill than Australia.

There were some key events in the first test that, had they transpired differently, may have altered the outcome. The most significant of these was the Gilchrist leg-before off Vettori when he was on seven. I'm not saying New Zealand would have won, but the game would definitely have taken a new shape because the counter-attack Clark and Gilchrist employed was magnificent. I feel New Zealand would've been able to stay in the match with that decision, and even may have created a lead while batting, then had the chance to bowl at Australia in the fourth innings. A chance of victory but by no means assured.

Umpiring decisions are critical but that is the nature of this great game, and human error is an element we should all accept because, as players, we too make mistakes. But please let them make the decision. Why walk? Some people argue that if you know you've infringed you should own up - but that doesn't carry any weight with me.

Do you send a cheque to the police every time you drive over 50km? While morally there is an obligation to abide by the rules, the game is professional. Let the professionals adjudicating make the decisions.

The test in Adelaide is being played on a placid wicket. There will not be much help for the bowlers in the first few days and batting should dominate.

If the weather is hot, the wicket is going to dry out - bringing the spinners into play. The Australian seam bowlers are also going to be in the game because reverse swing will be a factor. It is going to be a tough mission for the Black Cap batsmen. The real improvement that's needed is in the second innings at bat. Over the past seven test matches, this is the area that has generated most concern.

Being out of the Black Caps' camp and listening to comments here at home has given me a different insight. While many in the public arena display a profound negativity towards the team, I know within the team there will be more calm. These men are up against a massive obstacle. They will do their utmost to compete with Australia.