New Zealand will have to overcome a poor recent record at the Basin Reserve, a captain in the midst of a coin-toss form slump and an inexperienced top order if they are to have any chance of competing with Australia.
The first of a two-test series begins at the Basin Reserve this morning and captain Daniel Vettori has nominated the first session as pivotal.
"It's always tricky, the first session at the Basin," Vettori said. "If you can get through that it turns into a really good batting wicket."
Or so logic would dictate. New Zealand however, with their notoriously brittle top order, have struggled even under the best Basin conditions recently.
"[The Basin Reserve is] something we've got to play better on," Vettori admitted. "Our first-innings batting here hasn't been good. In this test it's going to be the key."
In the four tests Vettori has captained on this ground, New Zealand have amassed first innings totals of 99 against Pakistan, 197 against India, 198 versus the English and 393, thanks to a face-saving 94 from the skipper, against minnows Bangladesh. Interestingly, New Zealand batted second on each occasion after winning the toss, failing to make the most of what should have been the best batting conditions of the match.
Even with that in mind, Vettori hinted that New Zealand would probably stick with tradition and bowl first if he calls correctly for the first time in five internationals, and pointed to the inclusion of a 31-year-old rookie.
"The nature of the pitch brings Brent Arnel into the equation," Vettori said.
"We'll have a good, hard look at it tomorrow and it'll get a bit of drying today, but it's probably going to be a typical Wellington wicket - it will have a little bit in it early on and then it flattens out into a really good test match wicket."
The debut, should it happen, will be a long time coming for the Northern Districts seamer. He has had a national contract for the better part of a year and has been on the side's fringes without ever cracking the XI.
Vettori believes Arnel's ability to bowl a consistent line and length is important on a wicket that might offer assistance early and on a ground that is more often than not buffeted by strong winds.
"He bowls in the right areas the majority of the time and on a wicket that's got a little something in it, that's crucial. He bowls the right lengths, so let's hope he's ready for the step up."
Australia captain Ricky Ponting said his seam attack were rubbing their hands together at the prospect of a fast-paced Basin Reserve pitch, especially if the state of the practice wickets were any indication of the strip in the middle. "They've surprised me with how much bounce and pace they've had. When we were training the other day [Tuesday] it was like we were batting at the WACA to tell the truth," Ponting said in reference to Perth's fast wicket.
"That's encouraging for our guys. Our quicks didn't want to leave the nets out there."
Australia will make a decision on whether to hand impressive speedster Ryan Harris, who is carrying a side strain, a debut cap this morning, but you would not blame him for doing anything in his power to play.
Tim McIntosh, BJ Watling and Peter Ingram make up the greenest, least-credentialed international top three for NZ. They, with the rest of the line-up, have come under the tutelage of Martin Crowe this week.
Vettori said New Zealand's finest modern batsman had offered a good mix of common sense and personal experience to help the struggling unit understand what was required to bat for long periods in the test cauldron.
If the coin comes down the wrong way, we should have a fair idea how much they have taken on board by midway through the afternoon.
BASIN OR SINKHOLE?
Past 10 tests at Wellington
2009: v Pakistan, lost by 151 runs.
2009: v India, draw.
2008: v England, lost by 126 runs.
2008: v Bangladesh, won by innings and 137 runs.
2006: v Sri Lanka, lost by 217 runs.
2006: v West Indies, won by 10 wickets.
2005: v Sri Lanka, won by innings and 38 runs.
2005: v Australia, draw.
2004: v South Africa, lost by 6 wickets.
2003: v Pakistan, lost by 7 wickets.
NZ V AUSTRALIA
Basin Reserve, starting 11am today
New Zealand (likely): Daniel Vettori (c), Tim McIntosh, BJ Watling, Peter Ingram, Ross Taylor, Martin Guptill, Brendon McCullum, Daryl Tuffey, Tim Southee, Brent Arnel, Chris Martin, Jeetan Patel (12th man).
Australia (likely): Ricky Ponting (c), Shane Watson, Simon Katich, Michael Hussey, Michael Clarke, Marcus North, Brad Haddin, Mitchell Johnson, Nathan Hauritz, Ryan Harris/ Clint McKay, Doug Bollinger.
Cricket: Vettori has plenty of reasons to be fearful
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