New Zealand must win at Eden Park tomorrow night or the Chappell Hadlee Trophy will stay in Jolimont St, Melbourne for at least another year.
To prise it away from Cricket Australia's cupboard, New Zealand need to win back-to-back matches in Auckland and Wellington in the next four days.
On the evidence of last night, when Australia won more easily than the six-wicket margin suggests to go 2-1 up, unless there is a quantum leap in overall performance, there are two chances of that happening - slim and none.
New Zealand were restricted to an inadequate 245, with 22 balls unbowled. Australia, with Brad Haddin and Ricky Ponting doing the business in some comfort, eased home with 2.4 overs up their sleeve.
"We probably put ourselves under too much pressure early on with the bat," New Zealand captain Dan Vettori said.
"We paid the price for it in the later stages of the innings where we had to be aggressive and didn't have enough wickets in hand."
Indian Virendar Sehwag gave New Zealand a serious spanking on this ground a year ago. Haddin and Ponting, slowcoach by comparison, went about the job precisely and at a decent clip too, in a run-a-ball 151-run second-wicket stand.
Everything needed to go New Zealand's way for them to be in the contest. It didn't.
Haddin, who banged five sixes, completed his second ODI hundred - and second against New Zealand -in 113 balls.
New Zealand have batting issues at the top of the order, which has misfired in the last two matches.
Probably surprised to be sent in, which went against Australia's usual modus operandi, New Zealand began poorly and from then on it became an exercise in recovery.
There is an unmistakeable feeling that when Brendon McCullum goes early, despite the efforts of those who follow, much of the zing goes out of the New Zealand innings. McCullum scoring runs seems to imbue the rest of the batsmen with a measure of confidence.
From 55 for three it was always going to be a challenge as Australia looked to ramp up the intensity. Ross Taylor was touch and go until shortly before the start as he recovers from a hamstring strain.
Without his impressive, restrained innings, New Zealand would have been in a sorry state. There's an old joke in there somewhere - oh to be as unfit as Taylor, or something like that.
There were only two stands of note - Taylor and Neil Broom, who worked hard in sharing 71 runs off 74 balls for the fourth wicket, then Scott Styris and Gareth Hopkins, with 67 off 63 deliveries.
Styris and Hopkins, patient to start with, put some meat on the bones of the New Zealand innings.
The clincher in terms of scuttling any chance of New Zealand getting anywhere near 300 came with the loss of Styris, caught at long off, and Vettori, run out second ball, within four deliveries immediately after the five-over power play had been called.
But Hopkins is proving himself an increasingly resourceful operator. He lifted a couple of sixes into the crowd and got his 45 at a good clip.
Mitchell Johnson, seeming to thrive off the tiresome chuntering of the crowd, and Shane Watson were the pick of a diligent attack.
Too many batsmen contributed significantly to their dismissals.
It wasn't as if Australia ran through them but they stuck to their lines, generally fielded tidily, kept up the intensity and that was more than enough.
"The bowlers did a pretty good job, the fielding was a lot better and chasing runs gives our batters a bit more direction and they responded well today," Ponting said.
Cricket: Tougher task to wrest trophy from Aussies
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