The visitors are faced with the need to bowl the hosts out in the fourth innings. Photo / Photosport
By Andrew Alderson at Trent Bridge
Few circumstances must be more difficult to bear for those running professional sports teams than smug pundits trumpeting the benefit of hindsight.
Yet as England's weight of runs began buckling New Zealand's hopes of a decent first innings lead in the second cricket testat Nottingham, a familiar earworm started to pester.
"Should've picked Ajaz Patel."
The visitors are faced with the need to bowl the hosts out in the fourth innings with part-time spinner Michael Bracewell and three but possibly four specialist pace bowlers, depending on the state of Kyle Jamieson's back twinge.
The case for Patel remains valid considering how much attrition took a toll on the Black Caps during Ollie Pope and Joe Root's 187-run third wicket stand.
Bracewell was introduced in the 69th over. In the 76th, Matt Henry was bowling to a beleaguered field, including a fine leg, long leg, deep square leg and deep mid-wicket with England 301 for two. Daryl Mitchell also earned a call-up in the 78th as the quicks rested.
For the New Zealanders, the second new ball must have looked like a crown jewel.
Take nothing away from Bracewell, though. He performed with pluck on the third day.
That included holding his nerve to tempt Ben Stokes (46) into becoming his maiden test wicket. Stokes and Root had taken 13 from the first four balls of Bracewell's third over.
The England captain got greedy in his assault on the fifth. Essentially, he found the wrong Trent. Boult took a steepling catch at deep mid-wicket. The missile had been intended to zero in on his namesake river.
"He came out with some serious intent," Bracewell said.
"I was thinking, this could be a long over, but I tried to stay in the fight. I managed to get him to pop one up and Boulty took a good catch for me."
The move to select Bracewell made sense, given his additional batting prowess. An argument also existed for employing a left-arm orthodox specialist like Patel, the third player in test history to take 10 wickets in an innings against India during December at Mumbai.
Patel was a victim of context at Lord's, given the brief nature of both first innings – 132 versus 141 - and a lack of pitch deterioration across three days. Then he had his confidence tonked into the stands by Stokes, conceding 22 runs in two overs.
The flip side is that 57 of Root's 202 dismissals before this test (28 per cent) came via spin. Stokes has succumbed 61 times out of 144 (42 per cent) by comparison.
However, the all-pace decision by coach Gary Stead, captain Kane Williamson and stand-in Tom Latham held merit, albeit by reducing variety to the attack.
Spin has played a relatively minor role In the last three tests at Trent Bridge, where England have lost twice and drawn once.
One wicket of 31 came via tweak in 2021, five wickets of 37 in 2018 and 11 wickets of 39 in 2017. The overall impact is 16 per cent, which makes the decision moot.
This season 14 out of 98 – 14 per cent – of dismissals have come in similar fashion.