Cricket: Others may follow Cairns

If they can axe Chris Cairns, who else can they drop?

That's the question on many lips this week after the New Zealand selectors pulled their most daring move in a decade, cutting the country's greatest all-rounder from the squad to tour South Africa.

Cairns may have been short of a gallop in Zimbabwe but his omission still sent shockwaves around the cricket world, caused general disbelief in South Africa and sparked a chatter of activity in internet forums.

Quite apart from that, it also raised the question of who might be next to walk the plank as the selection panel of John Bracewell, Glenn Turner, Sir Richard Hadlee and Dion Nash begin crunching some of their biggest dilemmas.

To be fair to Bracewell, he's made no secret of the fact that his ultimate goal is success in the West Indies in 2007, and has always emphasised the need to have "15 fit and healthy players in peak form" if the dream is ever to be realised.

But if anyone was wondering how ruthless he was prepared to be, his decision to cut Cairns would have provided an unequivocal answer, not to mention sending a clear message to other contenders.

There'll be no free lunches under this regime.

Which brings us to the case of Hamish Marshall, New Zealand's batsman of the year and one of the few positive stories to emerge from the train crash that became last summer's campaign against Australia.

Still relatively green by international standards, he made the most of his opportunities against a weakened Pakistan outfit in 2003 but since then has averaged a wincing 19.28 outside New Zealand, and 6.75 on this month's tour of Zimbabwe.

Never mind the upcoming home campaigns against Australia, Sri Lanka and the West Indies.

For Marshall, the visit to South Africa this month and the ICC Champions Trophy campaign in India next October take on extra importance, as does the 2006-07 Chappell-Hadlee series in Australia.

Another who might be looking over his shoulder at the Cairns decision is veteran ODI specialist Chris Harris, at present playing for New Zealand A in Sri Lanka as he attempts to recover from a shoulder operation.

At 35 years, he finds himself in a similar position to that of his discarded team-mate, and possibly faces an even tougher job in persuading the selectors that he deserves to be included.

Harris cannot throw properly, carries a reduced authority at the batting crease, his fielding no longer possesses an x-factor, and he will almost certainly miss the cut if all other recognised candidates are available.

Then there's the case of Craig McMillan, who - at 29 - no longer has youth on his side, and with an average of 27.99 after 167 outings must have precious few chances left to rescue his career.

Once considered a batting all-rounder, he hasn't proved reliable enough with the ball and must now prove that he deserves to be picked on the strength of his run-scoring alone, something that could dramatically affect his prospects.

In terms of front-line bowlers, the most vulnerable remains Daryl Tuffey, the Northern Districts seamer who initially caught the public's imagination through his exploits at the bowling crease, and more latterly for his part in an impromptu adult video clip.

Presently trying to shake of the effects of injury with New Zealand A, Tuffey has snared 90 ODI wickets at a respectable economy rate of 4.65, but will need to rediscover his consistency to convince Bracewell and Co of his claims.

And who does that leave in peril? Well, with so many ODIs looming, virtually anyone from the top of the order to the very tail; the only exceptions being Nathan Astle, Daniel Vettori and Shane Bond - fitness permitting.

In fact, after the Cairns bombshell, maybe even Stephen Fleming has been given food for thought, given there is still plenty of room to play himself out of form, and that he hasn't a second string to his bow.

Alarmist? Perhaps. But when you think about the idea of Bracewell, Turner, Hadlee and Nash all sitting together in one room, it's clear that anything is possible.

The Road Ahead

New Zealand's path to the World Cup

Oct 2005 v South Africa, 5 ODIs
Nov 2005 v Australia, 3 ODIs
Dec 2005 v Sri Lanka, 4 ODIs
Feb 2006 v West Indies, 5 ODIs
Oct 2006 ICC Champions Trophy
Nov 2006 v Australia, 3 ODIs
Feb 2007 v India, 5 ODIs
March 2007 World Cup, West Indies