KEY POINTS:
All things being equal I'll always argue that bowlers win test matches.
A contrived fifth-day run chase aside, you won't win if you can't bowl the opposition out - no matter how many runs you get. However, if you can't get enough runs in the first place, batsmen can lose you test matches.
Last time in South Africa, in two of the three games, New Zealand's batting was a major concern and, in particular, batting against the pace of Dale Steyn and Makhaya Ntini.
The last two times the Black Caps have toured the Republic, Ntini has been judged the player of the series and arguably the defining factor.
Overcoming him and the quality pace bowling in general that South Africa always possess will be crucial this time.
Being tested in concerted spells by the world's best and fastest goes hand in hand with batting at test level - and a scary thought going into this series is that half our likely top order have either not truly been tested yet or have been tested and not been overly successful.
It starts with the openers who unfortunately, speaking from experience, can't avoid the best of the quicks but, if they can see off the initial spell, contribute much more to the cause than the runs they produce.
Michael Papps and Craig Cumming are proven first-class openers but they both have underachieved so far at test level.
The extra bounce with extra accuracy that you get at the top level has sometimes found Papps' technique out but, by all accounts, he has modified that technique.
Papps is a gutsy player and when he finds something that works for him, he is a performer.
He had a tough start to his provincial career but came good with startling consistency and, if he finds a technique that holds under test pressure, I see no reason why he can't become a consistent performer at top level for New Zealand.
It's not bounce that has undone Cumming. In fact he is very good player of the bouncing ball. It's the swing at pace quality bowling achieves that has stopped him from cementing a place.
Cumming has been exposed by a tendency to play around his front leg, which is a recipe for LBW, the danger magnifying with outswing the likes of which Dale Steyn produces.
I've not seen Cumming play of late so I'm unsure whether he has ironed out this fault.
But I do know that if he can call upon the best he has learned from his 10 years-plus at the provincial level, and his fleeting time at the top, then he has a chance.
Ross Taylor may be a number three at provincial level, but he should not play there for New Zealand right now. Stephen Fleming should bat three and I hope sense prevails to see Scott Styris in at four - leaving Taylor at five.
Taylor for Nathan Astle is individual style for individual style - and both those styles at first glance look a little flaky. Astle overcame an iffy technique with raw talent, which is exactly what Taylor has in abundance. He'll have his misses, just as Astle did, but he will come off spectacularly every so often just as Astle also did.
Over the next few weeks we will watch Taylor with about the same trepidation with which we watch the fortunes of a very high-risk stock.
There's hope these three players will contribute adequately this summer but there's expectation that the experienced and proven Fleming and Styris will score the bulk of the runs.
Then there's another player whom we must now load up with responsibility. Jacob Oram is an integral part of the Black Cap top six.
His 22 test matches suggests growing experience.
If something happens to Daniel Vettori, he may be the man to stand in as captain. Three test hundreds and an average of 39 more than suggests he's a top performer.
If John Bracewell's prediction of seamer-friendly conditions are realised then the man at six will need to be a true performer.
Six is often the best early season position at which to bat. Pitches that are of a reasonable standard but a little juicy offer plenty for half a day but, when the ball finally loses shine and a little hardness, become fair.
That's the time to be batting; when the top order is bruised physically and mentally - and out.
A good number six who has the strength of mind to ignore what went before and play the improving conditions effectively is worth his weight in gold. Oram, at six foot seven, is a lot of gold.
Oram has mental strength when it comes to his batting.
He's shown it in ODI run chases, he's shown it in tests against the best (Australia) and he showed it in difficult conditions last time they were in South Africa with a fine hundred in the first test.
A player like Oram, when succeeding, can positively affect the mindset of the whole team. Adam Gilchrist does it at seven, Chris Cairns did it at seven and eight and England's top all-rounder Andrew Flintoff does it too.
They lift their team. Oram may not do it with the initial destructive flamboyance of these other three but he does do it.
Then there's the way this tall, solid and very correct player complements the wristy and unorthodox tail he often bats with.
He is a perfect player to bat with the tail because he can hold up an end when Brendon McCullum or Vettori are flailing away; or he can do the run scoring as James Franklin gets set; or he can rack up the bonus runs during Shane Bond and Chris Martin's expected short stays.
Oram is the Black Caps' only true all-rounder in that he can make the team with both bat and ball but, if you were to take the ball away, I'd still say he's pretty all round.
