Cricket: Little time to impress as the countdown begins

As recently as November New Zealand was placed No 7 on the ICC's one-day international rankings. Today they're No 3 and are a couple of good results away from knocking South Africa out of No 2.

With 370 days until the World Cup in the West Indies, it could be noted that New Zealand are peaking nicely after the woes of 2005 when they were roundly thrashed by Australia and South Africa.

But there is a caveat here.

New Zealand potentially has relatively few one-day internationals (ODIs) between here and the island of St Lucia, where they will be based for the World Cup.

When the West Indies leave, they go to South Africa for a test series having already played the ODIs. That's it until the ICC Champions Trophy in India in November.

That is little more than a roll-of-the-dice tournament. At the last Trophy, in England in 2004, New Zealand lost first to Australia and then had to sit around for a week to play the USA before coming home. For build-up purposes it's next to useless if you don't go through to the final.

New Zealand will then play host to Bangladesh in a test and one-day series that will probably be of little value. Although Bangladesh are a coming force, they have shown little to suggest they'll challenge New Zealand in home conditions.

That puts a huge emphasis on the VB Series, where New Zealand will meet World Cup favourites Australia and England before flying to the Caribbean.

The VB Series will loom large in coach John Bracewell's thoughts. There will be little room for experimentation - combinations must be sorted, strengths maximised and weaknesses nullified.

Former New Zealand coach David Trist believes New Zealand is a genuine chance at the World Cup. He also offered compelling arguments as to why the other countries would struggle.

Hosts West Indies are not good enough, Sri Lanka do not travel well and England rely too much on one man, Andrew Flintoff. Pakistan are talented but vulnerable if Shoaib Akhtar doesn't turn up, India have all the batting in the world but are struggling with their attack and South Africa have failed to unearth any exciting bowling talent. Most importantly, Trist said, "Australia are in undeniable decline".

New Zealand, if they can get their best team on the field, are more than a match for most and will take the big guns of Australia and South Africa to the wire.

Strengths

1. Dan and Shane

"They're clearly world class," said Trist, pointing out that Bond's speed through the air and ability to swing the ball and continually get it in the right areas will make him a handful on even the most placid of surroundings.

"I don't really believe anyone else in the world at the moment has a double-act as strong as these two," Trist continued. "People don't realise how good Bond is. He's got an amazing strike rate and gets out good players.

"Styris is also very useful as a back-up. He's in the mould of Chris Harris but more adaptable in that he can bowl seam-up and his off-cutters."

West Indies wickets tend to play lower and slower as the sun bakes them through the day and there has been talk of a retro 1992-style attack - remember the bowling muscle of Gavin Larsen, Chris Harris, Dipak Patel and Hot-Rod Latham - so the likes of Nathan Astle and Jeetan Patel might have a role.

2. Batting depth

Here's a list of players that could do a job for New Zealand in the top six: Stephen Fleming, Nathan Astle, Lou Vincent, Scott Styris, Brendon McCullum, Peter Fulton, Hamish Marshall, Jamie How, Ross Taylor, Jacob Oram, Craig McMillan, Mathew Sinclair, Jesse Ryder, Michael Papps and James Marshall.

Obviously the last four names mentioned are long shots but that's a lot of talent for relatively few spots.

The key will be getting the mix right. The grounds in the Caribbean are affectionately known as postage stamps so games are likely to be high-scoring affairs (though several of the grounds will be sporting newly-laid pitches). There might not be as great a need for nudge-and-runners as twos and threes are going to be rarities. Ball strikers should be favoured.

3. Fielding

The gulf in class between the West Indies' fielding effort and the New Zealanders was extreme. It's not even the ability to stop the ball in the field that was most glaring.

It's the fielding arms and, more importantly, that every man in the New Zealand field is on the move after every shot, ready to stop overthrows or relay the ball.

New Zealand has every aspect of fielding covered. They've got speed inside the circle with Vincent and Hamish Marshall (in truth, fielding is probably saving Marshall's spot in the team, despite a slight return to form with the bat). An excellent keeper and slipper in McCullum and Fleming. Quality outfielders in Nathan Astle and Kyle Mills, and Oram who can field brilliantly anywhere.

Weaknesses

1. Injuries

Particularly, the availability of Jacob Oram.

"He's a key component of this New Zealand side and he needs to be available," Trist said. "He's got brains under pressure. He's an integral part of that middle order."

The trouble is, Oram's future as a bowler looks cloudy with that bane of a bowler's life, stress fractures in the back, having already impacted on his career, and now injuries seem to pile on top of injury.

Oram playing as a batsman-only defeats the point and, really, he doesn't have the statistics to suggest he should be considered as a one-day batsman only.

Obviously the injury concerns stretch beyond Oram. While Bracewell has been busy building depth, should any of Bond, Vettori, Styris or McCullum fall over, there will be massive concern.

2. Top three

While the likes of Astle, Vincent and, to a lesser extent, Fleming have put up big numbers against the West Indies, Trist said New Zealand still too often found itself at "three for spit".

"It's the area of concern for me," Trist said. "Clearly Vincent has the ability and the respect of the sides he plays but he's got to learn how to go about consistently scoring hundreds if he's going to open.

"If he wants to go full-on from ball one it's about measuring risk. But he's still got to learn how to crunch his game down like Astle did, where he taps it around, stays calm, puts the bad ball away and rotates strike so he's still there going into the 40th over where he can unleash again.

"He's got to control the urges that still dominate his game to some degree."

Trist said in Vincent, Fleming and Astle the right players were in the top three but needed to eradicate the times when they all failed together.

3. Seam bowling depth

New Zealand just doesn't have any. That's magnified when the likes of Oram and Bond are injured.

Kyle Mills has become adept at picking up early wickets and will feature heavily (though he still needs to learn to bowl better with the old ball) and Michael Mason has come on well, though there are still question marks over his effectiveness at this level.

If it doesn't swing for Franklin, and chances are it won't in the West Indies, then he's cannon fodder.

The biggest problem remains the tier below these three though. While the bats are queuing up at first-class level, there's little evidence of seam bowling strength.

-HERALD ON SUNDAY