How can New Zealand win a test against Australia next month? It may be an even more Herculean task now, writes Andrew Alderson, who looks at four ways the Black Caps could capitalise.
1) Find another bowler
New Zealand had the ability to take 20 Pakistani wickets but taking 20 Australian ones, post-Shane Bond and Iain O'Brien, is a different proposition.
The sight of Bond walking through customs on his way to Kolkata in mid-March to play in the Indian Premier League will be a mournful one for many a Black Caps fan.
With those methodical steps, departure card in hand, go New Zealand's catalyst to securing a first test victory against Australia in 17 seasons.
O'Brien's departure to Middlesex in the English county competition will also generate sighs after his dogged bowling into the wind in recent times.
People need only remember the last-session victory over Pakistan in Dunedin, when Bond and O'Brien toiled manfully, spurred on by a crowd sensing spirit and backbone in a recently coach-less side, to see what they will be missing.
What is the solution? Can New Zealand succeed, let alone survive, with a pace attack of Chris Martin, Daryl Tuffey and Tim Southee?
Kyle Mills is out until at least April, James Franklin seems to be becoming more of a batsman by the day and South Africa-born Neil Wagner won't qualify until 2011.
Is there a realistic left-arm punt? Ewen Thompson shapes as the best of them. He's just turned 30 but tops the Plunket Shield MVP table and has taken 22 wickets this season at a shade over 26.
Trent Boult continues to progress back from injury to lead the averages while Michael Bates completes the trio of left-arm options performing strongly at four-day level.
But the question remains, can any of these men scythe through an Australian batting line-up? The head says 'no', the heart says a tentative 'maybe'.
2) Reinforce the Black Caps top order
Jesse Ryder would have been the clear answer here, but his lingering groin injury won't heal.
What a saga that has been. Seeing him come out with a runner in a practice match against England under-19s was melancholy personified.
New Zealand need a player who is averaging a smidgen under 50 in tests, who is ruthless and lacks respect for opposition attacks.
However, it could all disintegrate if Ryder has another late-night lapse of discipline.
Neil Broom is now the next best option at No 5 because Daniel Flynn has struggled and can't be selected for the time being.
Broom's batting in all forms of the game has been a revelation this summer.
The Australian series is a formidable baptism, though, even if you have scored three centuries in seven innings in four-dayers with an average over 94.
The 60- and 90-run stands between Tim McIntosh and BJ Watling in the third Pakistan test provided a boost in the top order but the fact the Black Caps scored just six half centuries and one century in the series leaves a hollow feeling.
Three 50s went to Ross Taylor and the century went to Daniel Vettori when he batted at six. Three of those seven innings also came on an excellent batting track at Napier.
The two tests against Australia are in Wellington and Hamilton - almost guaranteed to provide more encouragement for bowlers.
Australia's attack might not be the force of old, now Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath have shelved their whites, but Mitchell Johnson, Doug Bollinger, Peter Siddle, Nathan Hauritz and perhaps the injured Ben Hilfenhaus will be stern opposition for the seventh-ranked Black Caps.
3) Elementary, my dear Watson
Well, not quite, when you look at the strength in the rest of the Australian batting order, but nabbing Shane Watson is a good start.
For someone who started out as a makeshift opener during the Ashes at Edgbaston, he has made the spot his own over the last nine tests.
Watson has averaged just under 57 and passed 50 in eight of his 16 innings to date.
Sure, his perpetual petulant scowl is annoying and his behaviour after dismissing Chris Gayle recently was deplorable but you have to respect his doggedness given the injury crises he's endured since his test debut in 2005.
His in-swingers in the final test against Pakistan were also partnership breakers as batsmen tried to make room to work him away, especially through the legside.
Shift across your crease at your peril, because if you miss Watson's deliveries it's inevitably leather thumping on canvas and you're going to be in line.
The application of the rest of the Australian top order has also been questioned. This is relative. The Australians didn't score a century - to the disbelief of fans (including the Channel Nine commentary team) - until the second innings of the first test against Pakistan.
Now all in the top six except Marcus North have made a ton in the last three tests - and even North hit two 50s against the West Indies.
A relative decline is considerably different to a real decline - and when you compare these to New Zealand's statistics over the last three years, Australia look strong.
They have averaged 44.94 runs per top seven batsman compared to the Black Caps' 30.20.
4) Vettori the leader, Vettori the bowler
Vettori's mandate to lead, given his command of the dressing room, is unquestioned - just like his selection as an allrounder.
Certainly, he regularly anchors the Black Caps innings and his promotion to No 6 to deliver a century, albeit on a friendly Napier pitch against Pakistan, was inspiring.
His bowling also commands respect with 10 wickets at 36.40 in the recent series.
The referral system suits him nicely for lbws when the arm ball hits, going on straight, but it would be preferable to see him flighting the ball regularly against Australia. The requirement of 20 wickets demands Vettori's full armoury.
The diet of limited-overs cricket can see slower bowlers opt for a containment policy in the interests of economy but to see Vettori regularly luring batsmen to drive and forcing false strokes would be preferable.
A place in folklore looms with a test or series win and, if it's not already established, it would return the Black Caps captaincy to an uber-powerful status symbol with no quibbles from media or others about the lack of a coach.
Vettori must temper those motivational factors with the start of the Indian Premier League at the end of the Chappell-Hadlee series.
Keeping his players' minds from wandering to what they're missing out on will be a skill.
No New Zealand IPL player will do it consciously but, if you thought you were going to miss out on the better part of $500,000 due to the pro-rata nature of the tournament, you might just take your eye off the ball, too.
Vettori knows passionate, gutsy performances in March will go a long way to convincing fans the players are true professionals and worthy of weighty IPL salaries.
